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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
MIN

MIN

1-3

1
3
KC

KC

2-2

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
39,320 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

KC no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 10.0TOTAL64.0%56.0%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 62.3%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIN 1 · KC 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0100000001
KC020000103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 98
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    94
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    91
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    91
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 94
    42
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 94
    213
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1/VegasKC -168

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Minnesota Twins, 3–1.

KC -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 10.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Austin Martin

Austin Martin

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Kyle Isbel

Kyle Isbel

CF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN1-3
1
3
KC2-2
MIN1-3·KC2-2
MIN

MIN

1-3

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-11010020
SPRINT27.867
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-33000010
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.326
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT2622
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000001
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33000001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT26.428
T. LarnachT. LarnachLF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.632
Team4-2929141136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
5.0522121
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.1211131
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000010
Team8.0733272
KC

KC

2-2

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000000
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-22000021
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010001
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-33000001
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-33110000
SPRINT27.765
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000002
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT27.867
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
2-33122100
SPRINT26.941
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
0-11000000
Team7-3030373227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BubicK. Bubic★SP
6.0211341
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0000010
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0100010
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0100000
Team9.0411361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    83 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      54%·92.5 mph·6% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.6 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      2%·76.5 mph·— whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      46%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·76.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      29%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      50%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.7 mph·— whiff

KC

  • K. Bubic
    75 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.9 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      21%·85.9 mph·56% whiff
    • SI
      21%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·83.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      56%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      75%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Mar 30MINMIN1@KCKC3today
Apr 1MINMIN9@KCKC13
Apr 2MINMIN5@KCKC1

Season series

KC leads series 1-0

Mar 30MINMIN1@KCKC3today
Apr 1MINMIN9@KCKC13
Apr 2MINMIN5@KCKC1
Jun 4KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jun 6KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jun 6KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jun 7KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jul 28KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jul 29KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Jul 30KCKC@MINMINupcoming
Aug 4MINMIN@KCKCupcoming
Aug 5MINMIN@KCKCupcoming
Aug 6MINMIN@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+13942%
KCKC-16863%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MINMIN
A. Martin

A. Martin

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

KCKC
K. Isbel

K. Isbel

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

K. Bubic

K. Bubic

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

KC beat MIN 3-1. Isbel's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

KC vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 50% WP

Wallner · homered to right center (424 feet).

KCBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+22pp→ 72% WP

Isbel · homered to right (403 feet), India scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 35% WP

Martin · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0100000001
KC02000010—3

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
2

Inn 2

Wallner 1

Isbel 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Collins 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
KC

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  2. T9

    Wallner grounded out to second.

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  6. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Matt Wallner

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  7. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  8. T9

    Jeffers singled to right.

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

    −2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  12. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  13. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  14. T9

    Keaschall lined out to right.

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

    +3pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  21. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  22. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  23. T9

    Buxton lined out to right.

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

    +4pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  27. T9

    John Schreiber pitches to Byron Buxton

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  28. T9

    Schreiber relieved Mears

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 3

  29. T9

    Thomas as designated hitter.

    MIN 1·KC 3

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 1·KC 3

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

KC

Home

1

Runs

3

4

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

7

TB

14

1

HR

2

3

BB

2

6

K

7

8

LOB

11

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 10.5·MIN +139/KC -168

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.4%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.