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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATL
ATL

ATL

8-5

8
2
LAA

LAA

6-7

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
21,375 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%LAA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 8 · LAA 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL1130210008
LAA0200000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -126

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL8-5
8
2
LAA6-7
ATL8-5·LAA6-7
ATL

ATL

8-5

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44120011
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44111002
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44111001
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44112111
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-33310021
SPRINT27.765
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-55012000
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33000011
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-44011001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33100011
Team8-3434887169
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
6.2522361
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
0.1000010
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
2.0200030
Team9.07223101
LAA

LAA

6-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-44000001
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000002
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33100012
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
3-44030000
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-22000011
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-33011012
SPRINT27.251
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-44010001
J. CandelarioJ. Candelario3B
0-11000000
Team7-33332721310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP
4.1565241
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.2222220
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0000110
B. SuterB. SuterRP
2.0100120
Team9.0887691

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    99 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      51%·94.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      34%·85.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·85.4 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • R. Detmers
    92 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      9%·72.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·79.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    42 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      29%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    32 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      44%·76.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      25%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      19%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·75.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bachman
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·98.9 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATLATL2@LAALAA6
Apr 8ATLATL7@LAALAA2
Apr 8ATLATL8@LAALAA2today

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATLATL2@LAALAA6
Apr 8ATLATL7@LAALAA2
Apr 8ATLATL8@LAALAA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-12656%
LAALAA+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

R. Detmers

R. Detmers

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat LAA 8-2. Olson's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 67% WP

Heim · hit a ground rule double, Riley scored.

LAABottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+10pp→ 74% WP

O'Hoppe · walked, Moncada scored, Lowe to second, Adell to third.

ATLTop 3rd Inning · 4-2
+23pp→ 67% WP

Olson · homered to center (399 feet), Baldwin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL1130210008
LAA0200000002

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · LAA won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Albies 1

1
2

Inn 2

Heim 1

Soler 1

3
0

Inn 3

Olson 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Dub 2

1
0

Inn 6

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATL
LAA

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  3. B9

    Peraza lined out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  5. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Oswald Peraza

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  6. B9

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  7. B9

    O'Hoppe reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  11. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  12. B9

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  13. B9

    Candelario grounded into double play, second to first, Adell out at second.

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

    −0.6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  21. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Jeimer Candelario

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  22. B9

    Candelario hit for Lowe

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  23. B9

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  24. B9

    Adell singled to center.

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  26. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  29. T9

    ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

  30. T9

    Dubón grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Olson out at second.

    · ·

    ATL 8·LAA 2

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

8

Runs

2

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

16

TB

11

1

HR

1

6

BB

3

9

K

10

18

LOB

16

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATL -126/LAA +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    152
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    157
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    143
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    177
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    175
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    177
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.