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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ATL
ATL

ATL

7-5

7
2
LAA

LAA

6-6

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
40,450 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%LAA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 7 · LAA 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0103000127
LAA2000000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    158
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    152
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    175
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    281
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 93
    177
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 93
    145
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -126

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 7–2.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL7-5
7
2
LAA6-6
ATL7-5·LAA6-6
ATL

ATL

7-5

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-55110002
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-55021002
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44111112
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44210012
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-55121001
SPRINT27.765
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT26.428
E. WhiteE. White★CF
1-22012000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-44011000
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
0-22000002
M. Harris IIM. Harris IICF
1-11010000
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-11100010
Team12-373771261312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LopezR. Lopez★RP
4.2320271
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
0.2100020
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.2000000
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000120
A. BummerA. BummerRP
0.1000100
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.2200030
Team9.06204141
LAA

LAA

6-6

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-55010004
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-55110002
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-44010011
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-11112100
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33000012
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-22000011
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-44000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-22000000
J. CandelarioJ. Candelario3B
0-11000001
L. O'HoppeL. O'HoppeC
0-11000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
0-11000011
Team6-33332621414
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
5.0644180
S. AndersonS. AndersonRP
3.0533141
M. FarrisM. FarrisRP
1.0100100
Team9.012773121

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

6

7

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATLATL2@LAALAA6
Apr 8ATLATL7@LAALAA2today
Apr 8ATLATL8@LAALAA2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 7ATLATL2@LAALAA6
Apr 8ATLATL7@LAALAA2today
Apr 8ATLATL8@LAALAA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-12656%
LAALAA+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Lopez

R. Lopez

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
J. Soler

J. Soler

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat LAA 7-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 73% WP

Soler · homered to left (366 feet), Trout scored.

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 35% WP

White · doubled to left, Olson scored.

ATLTop 4th Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 66% WP

Dub · ón doubled to left, Riley to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0103000127
LAA2000000002

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · LAA won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Soler 2

1
0

Inn 2

White 1

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Riley 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Albies 1

2
0

Inn 9

Baldwin 1

ATL
LAA

Play-by-play · 641 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  3. B9

    Schanuel grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Trout out at second.

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  5. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  6. B9

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  7. B9

    Trout singled to left, Neto to second.

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

    +1pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  10. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  11. B9

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  12. B9

    Neto singled to left.

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

    +0.5pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  16. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  17. B9

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  18. B9

    Frazier struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  26. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  29. T9

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

  30. T9

    Riley flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 7·LAA 2

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

7

Runs

2

12

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

18

TB

10

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

12

K

14

14

LOB

22

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATL -126/LAA +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

LAA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.6%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.6%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.