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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAA
ATL

ATL

6-5

2
6
LAA

LAA

6-5

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
25,471 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

LAA no-vig %

38.4%

open 38.4%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL42.4%34.4%LAA NO-VIG %MODEL 38.8%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

ATL 2 · LAA 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL1000000012
LAA100320006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+149

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -181

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Atlanta Braves, 6–2.

LAA +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL6-5
2
6
LAA6-5
ATL6-5·LAA6-5
ATL

ATL

6-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44121102
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-33000011
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33000002
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
0-33000000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000002
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33111101
SPRINT26.428
Team5-31312522111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
4.0566272
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
1.0000010
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.0000010
O. BidoO. BidoRP
2.0000010
Team8.05662102
LAA

LAA

6-5

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT27.148
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-33210001
SPRINT2622
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44122101
SPRINT27.867
J. CandelarioJ. Candelario★3B
0-33100012
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-22101010
SPRINT27.251
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-44000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-22001002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33011001
SPRINT29.395
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-33000001
Team5-28286562210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
8.03110101
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.2211111
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.1000000
Team9.05221112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • A. Bummer
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • CU
      35%·80.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      24%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.5 mph·0% whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATLATL2@LAALAA6today
Apr 8ATLATL7@LAALAA2
Apr 8ATLATL8@LAALAA2

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

Apr 7ATLATL2@LAALAA6today
Apr 8ATLATL7@LAALAA2
Apr 8ATLATL8@LAALAA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-18164%
LAALAA+14940%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

LAA beat ATL 6-2.

Win probability

LAA vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 69% WP

Baldwin · homered to right center (397 feet).

LAABottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 44% WP

Neto · homered to left (400 feet).

LAABottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 79% WP

O'Hoppe · walked, Soler scored, Candelario to second, Adell to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL1000000012
LAA10032000—6

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · LAA won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

Neto 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

O'Hoppe 1

0
2

Inn 5

Adell 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Dub 1

ATL
LAA

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  2. T9

    Yastrzemski flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  6. T9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  7. T9

    Romano relieved Silseth

    ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  8. T9

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  9. T9

    Riley walked.

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

    −0.6pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  19. T9

    Chase Silseth pitches to Austin Riley

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  20. T9

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  21. T9

    Olson grounded out to second, Baldwin to second.

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

    +1pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  26. T9

    Chase Silseth pitches to Matt Olson

    · ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  27. T9

    ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  28. T9

    Baldwin singled to center.

    ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

    −1pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·LAA 6

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

11

TB

11

2

HR

2

1

BB

2

11

K

10

7

LOB

10

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATL -181/LAA +149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 98
    158
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    157
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    143
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 94
    145
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    175
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    177
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.2%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.