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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5BOS
MIL

MIL

8-4

0
5
BOS

BOS

4-8

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
28,660 attended

Line movement

21 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BOS no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%BOS NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIL 0 · BOS 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
BOS003000205

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 22, 26sim 98
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    82
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    104
    2(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    160
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    85
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    153
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -143

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–0.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
David Hamilton

David Hamilton

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL8-4
0
5
BOS4-8
MIL8-4·BOS4-8
MIL

MIL

8-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.790
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-22000021
SPRINT29.798
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33000001
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-33000010
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000000
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.294
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000001
L. MatosL. MatosRF
0-11000001
Team4-3131040037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
SS. Drohan★RP
2.2333420
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.1000210
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000020
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
3.0422210
Team8.0755860
BOS

BOS

4-8

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-33000020
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-22100030
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44111011
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44121001
SPRINT2872
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-33012001
SPRINT27.969
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33001011
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-33120010
SPRINT28.790
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.560
Team7-3030575086
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
6.1300220
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
0.2100020
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
1.0000130
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
1.0000000
Team9.0400370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • S. Drohan
    63 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      30%·88.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    41 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      49%·93.2 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      26%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      18%·91.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.2 mph·100% whiff

BOS

  • S. Gray
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      29%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      24%·79.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.5 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      68%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Watson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      50%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

0

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 6MILMIL8@BOSBOS6
Apr 7MILMIL2@BOSBOS3
Apr 8MILMIL0@BOSBOS5today

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 6MILMIL8@BOSBOS6
Apr 7MILMIL2@BOSBOS3
Apr 8MILMIL0@BOSBOS5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL+11946%
BOSBOS-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MILMIL
D. Hamilton

D. Hamilton

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

S. Drohan

RP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

BOSBOS
C. Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BOS beat MIL 5-0.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 80% WP

Contreras · walked, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.

BOSBottom 7th Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 94% WP

Monasterio · lined out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
BOS00300020—5

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

0

Runs

5

4

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

5

TB

7

0

HR

0

3

BB

8

7

K

6

12

LOB

18

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIL +119/BOS -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

BOS vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · BOS won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Story 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
BOS

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  2. T9

    Lockridge flied out to center.

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  5. T9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Brandon Lockridge

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  6. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  7. T9

    Rengifo grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  15. T9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Luis Rengifo

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  16. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  17. T9

    Sánchez popped out to second.

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  21. T9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Gary Sanchez

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  22. T9

    Watson relieved Samaniego

    ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  25. B8

    · ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  26. B8

    Contreras struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

  30. B8

    Jake Woodford pitches to Willson Contreras

    · ·

    MIL 0·BOS 5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BOS vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.