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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
MIL

MIL

8-3

2
3
BOS

BOS

3-8

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
33,193 attended

Line movement

24 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.0

open O/U 6.0

BOS no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 6.5O/U 5.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%BOS NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 4 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIL 2 · BOS 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000002002
BOS000003003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 98
    80
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 97
    104
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    85
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    192
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 94
    104
    2(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -163

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Milwaukee Brewers, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

MIL +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Gary Sanchez

Gary Sanchez

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL8-3
2
3
BOS3-8
MIL8-3·BOS3-8
MIL

MIL

8-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
0-33000003
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44010001
SPRINT24.96
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000000
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-33010012
SPRINT24.12
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.790
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
0-44000002
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.790
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-33010010
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-11001000
C. YelichC. YelichDH
0-11001000
SPRINT27.148
Team5-3030252038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
5.12334100
D. HallD. HallRP
2.1100110
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
0.1000000
Team8.03335110
BOS

BOS

3-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000003
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33100012
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-22110021
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33100012
SPRINT2872
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44012001
SPRINT27.969
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-22000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-22010010
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-22000001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin3B
0-11001000
SPRINT28.175
Team3-26263330511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.1522270
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.2000000
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000010
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000100
Team9.0522380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    101 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      60%·98.8 mph·26% whiff
    • CU
      26%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      11%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    39 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      41%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.1 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·92.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Woodford
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      67%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.3 mph·100% whiff

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    107 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      28%·91.1 mph·12% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.1 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      55%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·93.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

3

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 6MILMIL8@BOSBOS6
Apr 7MILMIL2@BOSBOS3today
Apr 8MILMIL0@BOSBOS5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 6MILMIL8@BOSBOS6
Apr 7MILMIL2@BOSBOS3today
Apr 8MILMIL0@BOSBOS5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.0

Defensive · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL+13543%
BOSBOS-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MILMIL
G. Sanchez

G. Sanchez

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.1 IP · 10 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BOS beat MIL 3-2. Story's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

BOS vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 88% WP

Story · doubled to left, Duran and Contreras scored, Abreu to third.

MILTop 7th Inning · 1-3
+15pp→ 38% WP

Hamilton · hit by pitch, Ortiz scored, Perkins to second, Frelick to third.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+17pp→ 100% WP

Perkins · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Frelick out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000002002
BOS00000300—3

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · BOS won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Story 2

2
0

Inn 7

Hamilton 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
BOS

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  2. T9

    Perkins grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Frelick out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

    +17pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  4. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Blake Perkins

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  5. T9

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  6. T9

    Frelick walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

    −8pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  11. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  12. T9

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  13. T9

    Matos flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

    +6pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  15. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Luis Matos

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  16. T9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  17. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  18. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  19. B8

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  20. B8

    Story lined out to right.

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  21. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  22. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  23. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  24. B8

    Jake Woodford pitches to Trevor Story

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  25. B8

    Woodford relieved Hall

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  26. B8

    ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  27. B8

    Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to second, Contreras out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

    −2pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 2·BOS 3

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

5

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

8

K

11

16

LOB

9

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6·MIL +135/BOS -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BOS vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790