New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 22, 2026

FINAL+3NYY

NYY

15-9

BOS

9-15

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,049 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BOS no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
47.1%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.4%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low
Carlos RodonNYY
5.9± 2.3low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.9high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.3± 2.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.2± 3.2high
Ben RiceNYY
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jake BennettBOS
2.2± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BOS

.768

OPS

◀

.718

.690

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.311

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.85

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · BOS 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Goldschmidt1B	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. JudgeRF	.241	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
C. BellingerLF	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. StantonDH	.265	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.265	1	1	1	4	1	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.192	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.173	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.175	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rice1B	.314	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GrishamCF	.162	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	6	4	1	2	9

Player

.125

.241

.265

.265

.265

.192

.173

.238

.175

.314

.125

.162

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. FriedSP	8.0	3	0	0	2	9	100
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	26
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	9	126

Player

M. FriedSP

8.0

100

B. HeadrickRP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RafaelaCF	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. Contreras1B	.263	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. AbreuRF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.192	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. MonasterioSS	.194	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DuranLF	.194	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.147	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.296	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.179	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	5	1	0	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	4.2	5	4	4	2	4	71
Z. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
E. RiveraSP	3.1	1	0	0	0	3	41
Team	9.0	6	4	4	2	9	123

Team

NYY

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.