Matchup orbital

4
NYY
NYY
19-10
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

2
TEX
TEX
14-15
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYY wins
NYY 4 · TEX 2 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked NYY +6pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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NYY19-10
NYY
14-15TEX
TEX

Recap · MLB
ew York Yankees went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 4–2.
NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
NYY win series 2-1
NYY4@
TEX2today
NYY3@
TEX2
NYY0@
TEX3Season series
NYY lead series 1-0
NYY4@
TEX2today
NYY3@
TEX2
NYY0@
TEX3
TEX@
NYYupcoming
TEX@
NYYupcoming
TEX@
NYYupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NYY-16362%
TEX+13543%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 3rd Inning
NYY
A. Judge
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

M. Fried
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB
TEX
J. Pederson
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Leiter
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB
How it ended
NYY beat TEX 4-2. Rice's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
TEX vs NYY
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJung · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Nimmo out at second.
Rice · homered to center (404 feet), Grisham scored.
Duran · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Osuna out at second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Period scoring
NYY won 2 · TEX won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Rice 2
Inn 4
Jr. 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Pederson 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Osuna 1
Game flow · key plays
Duran grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Osuna out at second.
NYY 4·TEX 2
−7pp
Seager grounded out to second.
NYY 4·TEX 1
−6pp
Judge homered to left (414 feet).
NYY 3·TEX 0
−7pp
Rice homered to center (404 feet), Grisham scored.
NYY 2·TEX 0
−20pp
Jung grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Nimmo out at second.
NYY 0·TEX 0
−8pp
Nimmo reached on infield single to third.
NYY 0·TEX 0
+7pp
Team stats
NYY
Away
Stat
TEX
Home
9
Hits
7
1
Errors
0
4
Runs
2
Player box score

NYY
19-10

T. Grisham★
CF
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Rice★
1B
OPS
1.400
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1

A. Judge★
RF
OPS
3.000
H-AB
3-3
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

C. Bellinger★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Chisholm Jr.★
2B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

J. Dominguez★
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Wells★
C
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

R. McMahon★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Caballero★
SS
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
9-33
R
4
RBI
4
HR
3
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() T. Grisham★CF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.650 |
![]() B. Rice★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.400 |
![]() A. Judge★RF | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.000 |
![]() C. Bellinger★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() J. Chisholm Jr.★2B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
![]() J. Dominguez★LF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() A. Wells★C | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() R. McMahon★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() J. Caballero★SS | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| Team | 9-33 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — |

M. Fried★
SP
IP
6.0
H
4
ER
0
K
5

C. Doval
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
1
K
2

T. Hill
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0

D. Bednar
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
7
ER
1
K
8
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() M. Fried★SP | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
![]() C. DovalRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
![]() T. HillRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() D. BednarRP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 1 | 8 |

TEX
14-15

B. Nimmo★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Jung★
3B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Seager★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Burger★
1B
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

A. McCutchen★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

K. Higashioka★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

S. Haggerty★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

E. Carter★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

E. Duran★
LF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Pederson
1B
OPS
2.500
H-AB
1-2
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

J. Smith
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Jansen
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Osuna
LF
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
H-AB
7-32
R
2
RBI
2
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() B. Nimmo★RF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() J. Jung★3B | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.250 |
![]() C. Seager★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() J. Burger★1B | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
![]() A. McCutchen★LF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() K. Higashioka★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() S. Haggerty★LF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() E. Carter★CF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() E. Duran★LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
![]() J. Pederson1B | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.500 |
![]() J. Smith2B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() D. JansenC | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() A. OsunaLF | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.000 |
| Team | 7-32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |

J. Leiter★
SP
IP
6.0
H
8
ER
4
K
4

P. Gray
RP
IP
2.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1

G. Collyer
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0
IP
9.0
H
9
ER
4
K
5
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() J. Leiter★SP | 6.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
![]() P. GrayRP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
![]() G. CollyerRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 8·NYY -163/TEX +135