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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
STL

STL

6-5

7
6
WSH

WSH

4-7

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
20,036 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

WSH no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL55.7%47.7%WSH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 7 · WSH 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
STL20000012027
WSH10102100016

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasWSH -118

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (STL won by 1). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
STL6-5
7
6
WSH4-7
STL6-5·WSH4-7
STL

STL

6-5

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-55111011
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000020
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-33110020
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-55112101
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
3-44031011
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-22200020
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-55121002
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-22000011
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000001
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-22000000
N. ChurchN. ChurchLF
1-22112101
SPRINT28.586
Team9-36367972108
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
5.0944262
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
2.0111220
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
2.0000030
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0010020
Team10.010654132
WSH

WSH

4-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44321111
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
3-44132101
SPRINT26.838
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-55010001
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44211012
SPRINT29.395
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-44010002
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-44021012
SPRINT28.483
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-44000011
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-33000001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
0-11000000
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
0-11000001
Team10-383861052413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
4.2421430
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
1.0100110
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.1111221
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0122111
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000200
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0221010
Team10.09751082

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    92 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.4 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.4 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    35 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soriano
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      35%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      38%·98.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·83.2 mph·100% whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    94 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      34%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.7 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      23%·84.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      44%·90.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      30%·78.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      65%·90.0 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Varland
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      91%·86.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      6%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·87.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

7

Runs

6

1

Errors

2

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Apr 6STLSTL6@WSHWSH9
Apr 7STLSTL7@WSHWSH6today
Apr 8STLSTL6@WSHWSH1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 6STLSTL6@WSHWSH9
Apr 7STLSTL7@WSHWSH6today
Apr 8STLSTL6@WSHWSH1
Sep 19WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 19WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 20WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL-10250%
WSHWSH-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 8th Inning

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
C. Mead

C. Mead

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

STL beat WSH 7-6. Church's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

WSH vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 8th Inning · 5-5
+33pp→ 42% WP

Church · homered to right (378 feet), Winn scored.

STLTop 10th Inning · 6-5
+24pp→ 73% WP

Saggese · doubled to center, Winn scored.

STLTop 10th Inning · 7-5
+20pp→ 82% WP

Wetherholt · doubled to right, Saggese scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
STL20000012027
WSH10102100016

Period scoring

STL won 4 · WSH won 3

2
1

Inn 1

Walker 1

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Wood 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Mead 1

0
1

Inn 6

Mead 1

1
0

Inn 7

Walker 1

2
0

Inn 8

Church 2

0
0

Inn 9

2
1

Inn 10

Saggese 1

STL
WSH

Play-by-play · 720 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    STL 7·WSH 6

  2. B10

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 6

  3. B10

    Nuñez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 6

    −13pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 6

  5. B10

    Lile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 6

  6. B10

    Lile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 6

  7. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  11. B10

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Nasim Nunez

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 6

  12. B10

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  13. B10

    Young grounded out to third, Vivas to second, Lile to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

    −5pp

  14. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  15. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  16. B10

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  17. B10

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  18. B10

    Abrams struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

    −13pp

  19. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  20. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  21. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  22. B10

    Riley O'Brien pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  23. B10

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  24. B10

    Vivas hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

    +10pp

  25. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  26. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  27. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  28. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  29. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

  30. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 7·WSH 5

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

7

Runs

6

9

Hits

10

1

Errors

2

17

TB

16

2

HR

2

10

BB

4

8

K

13

26

LOB

18

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 7·STL -102/WSH -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 98
    304
    9(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    267
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    66
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 95
    246
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    2610
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    308
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

WSH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.5%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.4%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872