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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SF
SF

SF

9-12

7
6
WSH

WSH

9-12

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
35,527 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL52.9%44.9%WSH NO-VIG %MODEL 47.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 7 · WSH 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
SF0120021000017
WSH1400000010006

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -115

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (SF won by 1). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

1.867OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12
SF9-12
7
6
WSH9-12
SF9-12·WSH9-12
SF

SF

9-12

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-66110002
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-66220000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-66121000
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-66011001
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-66021002
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-66120001
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
3-55232111
SPRINT27.251
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-55021001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44010003
D. SusacD. SusacC
0-11000000
Team16-515171661111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
5.2754211
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
0.1000010
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000020
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0000000
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
2.0311220
C. KilianC. KilianRP
2.0000120
Team12.01065581
WSH

WSH

9-12

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33312121
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-33012000
SPRINT26.735
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
1-22011010
SPRINT27.662
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-55000011
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
2-66020000
SPRINT29.496
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-66020002
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-44100001
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-44110010
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-55110001
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-33000000
B. HouseB. House3B
1-22011001
SPRINT2872
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
0-11000001
Team10-44446106158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
4.0731050
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
3.0533021
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0200020
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
2.0000120
C. PerezC. PerezRP
2.0210000
Team12.016741111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • A. Houser
    88 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      38%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Walker
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      73%·95.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      27%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Kilian
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      29%·80.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Miller
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Borucki
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      83%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Gage
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.1 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.5 mph·24% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.3 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      15%·83.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Parker
    53 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      49%·83.4 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.3 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      19%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      2%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Varland
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      43%·88.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      9%·91.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    23 pitches·48% CSW
    • ST
      48%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      35%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·92.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Perez
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      45%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      18%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

10

7

Runs

6

1

Errors

2

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 17SFSF10@WSHWSH5
Apr 18SFSF7@WSHWSH6today
Apr 19SFSF0@WSHWSH3

Season series

SF leads series 2-0

Apr 17SFSF10@WSHWSH5
Apr 18SFSF7@WSHWSH6today
Apr 19SFSF0@WSHWSH3
Jun 9WSHWSH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 10WSHWSH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 10WSHWSH@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-11553%
WSHWSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 42pp · Top 10th Inning

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.867 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 7 H

How it ended

SF beat WSH 7-6. Schmitt's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 12th inning

Win probability

WSH vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 6th Inning · 5-5
+25pp→ 47% WP

Ramos · homered to left (378 feet), Lee scored.

WSHTop 10th Inning · 6-6
+42pp→ 63% WP

Schmitt · struck out swinging.

SFTop 12th Inning · 7-6
+32pp→ 69% WP

Chapman · singled to left, Arraez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
SF0120021000017
WSH1400000010006

Period scoring

SF won 4 · WSH won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Wood 1

1
4

Inn 2

Gilbert 1

Garc 2

2
0

Inn 3

Schmitt 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Ramos 2

1
0

Inn 7

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

House 1

0
0

Inn 10

0
0

Inn 11

1
0

Inn 12

Chapman 1

SF
WSH

Play-by-play · 764 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 12

    End of the 12th inning

    SF 7·WSH 6

  2. B12

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  3. B12

    Lile struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

    −15pp

  4. B12

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  5. B12

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  6. B12

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  7. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  8. B12

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  9. B12

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  10. B12

    Young lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

    −15pp

  11. B12

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  12. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  13. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  14. B12

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  15. B12

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  16. B12

    Abrams flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

    −17pp

  17. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  18. B12

    Caleb Kilian pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  19. B12

    Bottom of the 12th inning

    SF 7·WSH 6

  20. M12

    Middle of the 12th inning

    SF 7·WSH 6

  21. T12

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  22. T12

    Ramos flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

    +7pp

  23. T12

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  24. T12

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  25. T12

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  26. T12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  27. T12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  28. T12

    Cionel Perez pitches to Heliot Ramos

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  29. T12

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

  30. T12

    Lee fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 7·WSH 6

    +7pp

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

7

Runs

6

16

Hits

10

1

Errors

2

21

TB

16

1

HR

1

1

BB

5

11

K

8

28

LOB

32

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 9.5·SF -115/WSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

WSH vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    50.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.3%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    66
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    247
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    304
    9(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 95
    2610
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 94
    246
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    308
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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