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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIN
TB

TB

2-5

4
10
MIN

MIN

3-4

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
36,042 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIN no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL54.0%46.0%MIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

TB 4 · MIN 10 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB2001000104
MIN0003007010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -110

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Tampa Bay Rays, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB2-5
4
10
MIN3-4
TB2-5·MIN3-4
TB

TB

2-5

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-22110020
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-55000001
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-55120000
SPRINT25.716
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT28.278
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33112001
SPRINT26.225
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44011001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.381
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-33000010
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000003
R. ViladeR. ViladeRF
0-11000001
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
0-11000000
Team8-3535484037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BoyleJ. Boyle★SP
5.1432390
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
0.2000110
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1265210
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.2111011
Team8.071086121
MIN

MIN

3-4

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000013
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-33000001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-55210000
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-55000005
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-55222002
SPRINT25.18
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
2-33220001
SPRINT26.326
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-22011020
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-22102020
SPRINT27.251
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-22115110
SPRINT26.428
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11100000
Team7-3232107101612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
4.0433240
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
2.0100100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2200020
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.1000000
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0111000
C. LawerysonC. LawerysonRP
1.0000010
Team9.0844370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • J. Boyle
    104 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      34%·88.1 mph·28% whiff
    • FS
      24%·92.6 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      45%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      21%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.5 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      26%·82.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      50%·90.5 mph·75% whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    82 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      34%·82.4 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      30%·88.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      23%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      9%·75.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      2%·72.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Orze
    37 pitches·19% CSW
    • FS
      62%·82.5 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Topa
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      35%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·84.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      29%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      59%·92.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      24%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Laweryson
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      80%·91.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

4

Runs

10

3

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Apr 3TBTB4@MINMIN10today
Apr 4TBTB7@MINMIN1
Apr 5TBTB4@MINMIN1

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Apr 3TBTB4@MINMIN10today
Apr 4TBTB7@MINMIN1
Apr 5TBTB4@MINMIN1
Apr 24MINMIN2@TBTB6
Apr 25MINMIN1@TBTB6
Apr 26MINMIN2@TBTB4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-11052%
MINMIN-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

J. Boyle

J. Boyle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

MINMIN
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat TB 10-4. Fortes's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIN vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 65% WP

Fortes · doubled to left, Caminero scored and Díaz scored.

MINBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+12pp→ 57% WP

Lewis · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bell scored, Larnach safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Williams, Jeffers to third.

MINBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 84% WP

Bell · singled to center, Outman scored, Keaschall to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB2001000104
MIN00030070—10

Period scoring

TB won 2 · MIN won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Fortes 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
3

Inn 4

Williamson 1

Bell 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
7

Inn 7

Gray 4

1
0

Inn 8

Mullins 1

0

Inn 9

TB
MIN

Play-by-play · 639 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  2. T9

    Caminero lined out to center.

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  6. T9

    Cody Laweryson pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  7. T9

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  8. T9

    Aranda grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  13. T9

    Cody Laweryson pitches to Jonathan Aranda

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  14. T9

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  15. T9

    Vilade struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  19. T9

    Cody Laweryson pitches to Ryan Vilade

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  20. T9

    Laweryson relieved Banda

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  21. T9

    Vilade hit for Díaz

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 4·MIN 10

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 4·MIN 10

  24. B8

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  25. B8

    Bell popped out to second.

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  26. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 2

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 10

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

10

8

Hits

7

3

Errors

0

12

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

6

7

K

12

18

LOB

19

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·TB -110/MIN -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    247
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    246
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    66
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    267
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    2610
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    308
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    49.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278