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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5NYY
NYY

NYY

4-1

5
0
SEA

SEA

3-3

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
32,790 attended

Line movement

19 snapshots

SEA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

+2.0+1.0SEA SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL51.8%43.8%SEA NO-VIG %MODEL 48.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · SEA 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY2000030005
SEA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    101
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    105
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 92
    80
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 92
    165
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    194
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 91
    153
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1/VegasNYY -120

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 5–0.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY4-1
5
0
SEA3-3
NYY4-1·SEA3-3
NYY

NYY

4-1

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000002
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-33220010
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-22221020
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44022000
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.175
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
0-44000001
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-44000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-44000003
Team9-33335940310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
7.0300160
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0100010
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0000000
Team9.0400170
SEA

SEA

3-3

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT26.326
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000002
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33010010
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000000
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT25.18
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-33000001
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-33000000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.662
Team4-3030040017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
5.1755360
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
2.0200030
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.2000010
Team9.09553100

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Mar 31NYYNYY1@SEASEA2
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA0today
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA3

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 31NYYNYY1@SEASEA2
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA0today
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA3
Aug 11SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 12SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 13SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-12055%
SEASEA+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYY beat SEA 5-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 58% WP

Rice · doubled to right, Bellinger scored.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+6pp→ 90% WP

Rice · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY2000030005
SEA0000000000

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · SEA won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
SEA

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  2. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  3. B9

    Arozarena grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  6. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  7. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  8. B9

    Naylor grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  12. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Josh Naylor

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  13. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  14. B9

    Rodríguez flied out to right.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

    −0.5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  17. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  18. B9

    Hill relieved Headrick

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  21. T9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  22. T9

    McMahon grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  29. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Ryan McMahon

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

  30. T9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 0

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

5

Runs

0

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

12

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

10

K

7

10

LOB

7

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7·NYY -120/SEA +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175