
NYY
4-1

SEA
3-3
Line movement
19 snapshots
SEA spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.0
open O/U 7.0
SEA no-vig %
47.8%
open 47.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYY wins
NYY 5 · SEA 0 (by 5)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SEA +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+100
Close price
+100
Open no-vig
47.8%
Close no-vig
47.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
ew York Yankees went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 5–0.
NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYY · top performer

Ben Rice
1B
2-2
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
SEA · top performer

Julio Rodriguez
CF
3-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYY
4-1
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.560 | ||||||||
| 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT23.81 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 9-33 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
SEA
3-3
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.326 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT23.81 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| Team | 4-30 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
4
5
Runs
0
0
Errors
1
Current series
NYY win series 2-1
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
7.0
Defensive · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 19 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning
B. Rice
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS
M. Fried
SPStarting pitcherGem
7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB
J. Rodriguez
CFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS
L. Gilbert
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB
How it ended
NYY beat SEA 5-0.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SEA vs NYY
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRice · doubled to right, Bellinger scored.
Rice · walked.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
NYY won 2 · SEA won 0
Inn 1
Rice 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Rice 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 504 plays
End of the 9th inning
NYY 5·SEA 0
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Arozarena grounded out to shortstop.
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Tim Hill pitches to Randy Arozarena
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Naylor grounded out to first.
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Tim Hill pitches to Josh Naylor
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Rodríguez flied out to right.
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
−0.5pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Tim Hill pitches to Julio Rodriguez
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Hill relieved Headrick
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Bottom of the 9th inning
NYY 5·SEA 0
Middle of the 9th inning
NYY 5·SEA 0
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
McMahon grounded out to second.
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Casey Legumina pitches to Ryan McMahon
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
·
NYY 5·SEA 0
Team stats
NYY
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
5
Runs
0
9
Hits
4
0
Errors
1
12
TB
4
0
HR
0
3
BB
1
10
K
7
10
LOB
7
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 7·NYY -120/SEA +100
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 77 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.8%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
50.8%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.2%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 15 players in cohort