MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAA

SEA

4-5

LAA

4-5

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

44,084 attended

Line movement

18 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAA no-vig %

41.4%

open 41.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
41.8%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.3%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.3%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.8± 3.7medium
Logan GilbertSEA
6.1± 2.7medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.4± 1.5high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.9high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.1± 1.2low

Total bases

Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.1± 2.7high
Jo AdellLAA
2.0± 2.3high
Zach NetoLAA
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Trey ManciniLAA
0.8± 1.1low
Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.7± 1.5low
Jo AdellLAA
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
Luis CastilloSEA
2.6± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

LAA

.712

OPS

.717

.714

.317

OBP

.319

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

3.65

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.55

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

SEA 0 · LAA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RaleyRF	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. RaleighC	.121	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.147	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Naylor1B	.114	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.167	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. Young2B	.281	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. RefsnyderDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	3	10

Player

.217

.121

.147

.114

.281

.278

.167

.281

.143

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	6.2	6	1	1	0	5	82
E. BazardoRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	25
Team	8.0	7	1	1	0	7	107

Player

E. HancockSP

6.2

E. BazardoRP

1.1

Team

8.0

107

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.235	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
M. TroutCF	.207	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SolerDH	.152	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
Y. Moncada3B	.107	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. AdellRF	.242	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. O'HoppeC	.217	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TeodosioLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	7	1	1	0	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KochanowiczSP	5.2	4	0	0	2	7	86
J. LucchesiRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
C. SilsethRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
S. BachmanRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
D. PomeranzRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	5	0	0	3	10	140

Team

SEA

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.