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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CHC
ARI

ARI

16-17

4
8
CHC

CHC

22-12

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
35,597 attended

Line movement

126 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 0.0 · +12.0

CHC no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

+0.5-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 12.5O/U -0.5TOTAL63.3%54.3%CHC NO-VIG %May 2, 5 PMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

ARI 4 · CHC 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0200000024
CHC012030208

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 6, 26sim 98
    176
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 97
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    295
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 96
    132
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    287
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    134
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesCHC win series 3-0/VegasCHC -156

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 8–4.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total pushed exactly on 12.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
A

Adrian Del Castillo

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Moises Ballesteros

Moises Ballesteros

DH

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI16-17
4
8
CHC22-12
ARI16-17·CHC22-12
ARI

ARI

16-17

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-55000003
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.838
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-33000011
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44010000
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.29
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-33120011
SPRINT25.818
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-44112101
SPRINT26.428
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-33000001
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-22000010
AA. Del CastilloDH
1-11112100
SPRINT26.326
Team7-3333474238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
4.1866351
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.2000000
B. PfaadtB. PfaadtRP
2.1422310
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
0.2000020
Team8.01288681
CHC

CHC

22-12

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-55120000
SPRINT28.278
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-44222111
SPRINT24.53
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44100011
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33210021
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-55120003
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-33124011
SPRINT25.716
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44022000
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000011
Team12-35358128168
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
6.0422151
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0100110
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0100000
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0122121
Team9.0744382

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Kelly
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      33%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.7 mph·53% whiff
    • FC
      15%·91.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      15%·91.8 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Pfaadt
    52 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.8 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      29%·84.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      23%·81.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      100%·90.1 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    94 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      37%·79.0 mph·39% whiff
    • FF
      37%·91.8 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      19%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·73.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Martin
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      62%·95.0 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      19%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      12%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      4%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      48%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      28%·75.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      12%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      53%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

4

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 3-0

May 1ARIARI5@CHCCHC6
May 2ARIARI0@CHCCHC2
May 3ARIARI4@CHCCHC8today

Season series

CHC lead series 3-0

May 1ARIARI5@CHCCHC6
May 2ARIARI0@CHCCHC2
May 3ARIARI4@CHCCHC8today
Aug 25CHCCHC@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 26CHCCHC@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 26CHCCHC@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

12.0

High-scoring · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+12944%
CHCCHC-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 126 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

12.0

+12.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 2nd Inning

ARIARI

A. Del Castillo

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat ARI 8-4. Moreno's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

CHC vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 56% WP

Moreno · homered to left center (427 feet), Arenado scored.

CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+17pp→ 76% WP

Ballesteros · homered to left center (389 feet), Hoerner scored.

CHCBottom 5th Inning · 2-6
+12pp→ 96% WP

Busch · tripled to right, Ballesteros scored, Bregman scored and Happ scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0200000024
CHC01203020—8

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · CHC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

2
1

Inn 2

Moreno 2

Kelly 1

0
2

Inn 3

Ballesteros 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Busch 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Busch 1

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Castillo 2

ARI
CHC

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  2. T9

    Marte struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  8. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Ketel Marte

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  9. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  10. T9

    Del Castillo homered to center (412 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.

    ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  14. T9

    Gurriel Jr. to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  15. T9

    Gurriel Jr. to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  20. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    · ·

    ARI 4·CHC 8

  21. T9

    Del Castillo hit for Barrosa

    ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  22. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  23. T9

    Fernandez popped out to first.

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  28. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Jose Fernandez

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  29. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

  30. T9

    Moreno struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 2·CHC 8

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

4

Runs

8

7

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

15

TB

21

2

HR

1

3

BB

6

8

K

8

11

LOB

23

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 12·ARI +129/CHC -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CHC vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.0%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278