
SF
2-3

SD
1-4
Line movement
11 snapshots
SD spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
SD no-vig %
45.8%
open 45.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SF wins
SF 9 · SD 3 (by 6)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SD +7pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+109
Close price
+109
Open no-vig
45.8%
Close no-vig
45.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
an Francisco Giants went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
SF -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SF · top performer

Willy Adames
SS
5-4
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
SD · top performer

Fernando Tatis Jr.
RF
3-1
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


SF
2-3
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 16-40 | 40 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
SD
1-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT24.32 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.530 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 6-32 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 3.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSF
SD
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
16
Hits
6
9
Runs
3
0
Errors
1
Current series
SF wins series 2-1
Season series
SF leads series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SF -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 11 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning
W. Adames
SSBatter of the gamePerfect day
4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS
L. Webb
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB
F. Tatis Jr.
RFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS
G. Marquez
SPStarting pitcher
3.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB
How it ended
SF beat SD 9-3.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SD vs SF
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLee · doubled to right, Chapman scored and Ramos scored.
Andujar · singled to right, Merrill scored.
Adames · singled to center, Bader scored, Bailey to second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
SF won 3 · SD won 1
Inn 1
Lee 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Chapman 1
Merrill 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Ramos 2
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Lee 1
Play-by-play · 592 plays
End of the 9th inning
SF 9·SD 3
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Fermin struck out swinging.
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Castellanos to second on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 9·SD 3
Castellanos to second on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Jose Butto pitches to Freddy Fermin
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
·
SF 9·SD 3
Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Sheets out at second.
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
Jose Butto pitches to Nick Castellanos
· ·
SF 9·SD 3
·
SF 9·SD 3
Sheets singled to center.
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SF 9·SD 3
Jose Butto pitches to Gavin Sheets
·
SF 9·SD 3
·
SF 9·SD 3
Andujar struck out swinging.
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
SF 9·SD 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
SF 9·SD 3
Team stats
SF
Away
Stat
SD
Home
9
Runs
3
16
Hits
6
0
Errors
1
26
TB
8
2
HR
0
2
BB
4
7
K
8
16
LOB
12
Betting line
SF -1.5·O/U 7.5·SF -131/SD +109
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 14 players in cohortHistorical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 74 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
55.9%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
57.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.9%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.9%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.56 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.