• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6SF
SF

SF

2-3

9
3
SD

SD

1-4

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,891 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL49.8%41.8%SD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 9 · SD 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF3010040019
SD0030000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -131

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SF -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF2-3
9
3
SD1-4
SF2-3·SD1-4
SF

SF

2-3

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
4-55242100
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-55120000
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44112012
SPRINT27.251
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44011000
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-55221101
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
3-55033000
SPRINT27.148
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-55110001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33110010
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010003
Team16-40409169227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
6.0333450
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.0200010
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.0100020
Team9.0633480
SD

SD

1-4

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-44000000
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT28.483
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-33111011
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44001001
SPRINT27.148
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT26.530
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44010001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33010010
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000001
Team6-3232363048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. MarquezG. Marquez★SP
3.0844112
K. HartK. HartRP
2.1444120
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.2100010
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100020
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.0210010
Team9.01698272

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • J. Butto
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.4 mph·— whiff

SD

  • J. Estrada
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      85%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      8%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

6

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Mar 31SFSF3@SDSD2
Apr 1SFSF9@SDSD3today
Apr 1SFSF1@SDSD7

Season series

SF leads series 2-0

Mar 31SFSF3@SDSD2
Apr 1SFSF9@SDSD3today
Apr 1SFSF1@SDSD7
May 5SDSD2@SFSF3
May 6SDSD10@SFSF5
May 6SDSD5@SFSF1
Jul 31SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 1SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 2SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 2SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Sep 12SDSD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 12SDSD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 13SDSD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-13157%
SDSD+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

G. Marquez

G. Marquez

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SF beat SD 9-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+15pp→ 82% WP

Lee · doubled to right, Chapman scored and Ramos scored.

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 4-3
+9pp→ 34% WP

Andujar · singled to right, Merrill scored.

SFTop 6th Inning · 5-3
+11pp→ 82% WP

Adames · singled to center, Bader scored, Bailey to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF3010040019
SD0030000003

Period scoring

SF won 3 · SD won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
3

Inn 3

Chapman 1

Merrill 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

4
0

Inn 6

Ramos 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Lee 1

SF
SD

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 9·SD 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  3. B9

    Fermin struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  8. B9

    Castellanos to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  9. B9

    Castellanos to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  12. B9

    Jose Butto pitches to Freddy Fermin

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  13. B9

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  14. B9

    Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Sheets out at second.

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  16. B9

    Jose Butto pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  17. B9

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  18. B9

    Sheets singled to center.

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  25. B9

    Jose Butto pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  26. B9

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  27. B9

    Andujar struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 9·SD 3

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

SD

Home

9

Runs

3

16

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

26

TB

8

2

HR

0

2

BB

4

7

K

8

16

LOB

12

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 7.5·SF -131/SD +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 98
    238
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    238
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    12
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    263
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 93
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    75
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    57.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.9%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.