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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5PIT
PIT

PIT

3-3

8
3
CIN

CIN

3-3

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
15,007 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CIN no-vig %

43.4%

open 43.4%

+2.0+1.0CIN SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL47.4%39.4%CIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 8 · CIN 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT3000010048
CIN0001020003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    269
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    238
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    12
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    297
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.4%

Close no-vig

43.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -145

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 8–3.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT3-3
8
3
CIN3-3
PIT3-3·CIN3-3
PIT

PIT

3-3

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-55000002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-55122001
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-55222101
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44100011
SPRINT25.614
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-55223101
SPRINT28.483
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-22010020
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-33010011
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33111012
SPRINT24.85
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33100001
Team9-35358982510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
5.0311250
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2122111
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.1100000
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000010
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000020
Team9.0533391
CIN

CIN

3-3

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-22000020
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000003
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33100010
SPRINT26.530
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-22011000
SPRINT25.411
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000003
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-22000000
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44010001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
E. SuarezE. SuarezDH
1-22112101
SPRINT25.818
D. MyersD. MyersCF
1-22010000
SPRINT2744
Team5-3232353139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
5.2544351
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
0.1000200
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0100020
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000010
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0344021
Team9.09885102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    77 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      39%·97.6 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.4 mph·38% whiff
    • FS
      10%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      82%·93.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      60%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      40%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Soto
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • ST
      54%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      31%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      15%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      42%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      42%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.1 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      51%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.8 mph·36% whiff
    • FS
      18%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      52%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      48%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      54%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      46%·98.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      45%·84.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

8

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Mar 30PITPIT0@CINCIN2
Mar 31PITPIT8@CINCIN3
Apr 1PITPIT8@CINCIN3today

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Mar 30PITPIT0@CINCIN2
Mar 31PITPIT8@CINCIN3
Apr 1PITPIT8@CINCIN3today
May 1CINCIN1@PITPIT9
May 2CINCIN7@PITPIT17
May 3CINCIN0@PITPIT1
Jun 26CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jun 27CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jun 28CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jul 30PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Jul 31PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Aug 1PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Aug 2PITPIT@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-14559%
CINCIN+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 1st Inning

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CIN 8-3. Cruz's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+27pp→ 77% WP

Cruz · homered to right (407 feet), Reynolds scored and Ozuna scored.

CINBottom 6th Inning · 4-3
+18pp→ 33% WP

Suárez homered to left (410 feet), Stewart scored.

PITTop 9th Inning · 6-3
+11pp→ 98% WP

Gonzales · singled to left, Horwitz scored and Davis scored, Gonzales to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT3000010048
CIN0001020003

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · CIN won 2

3
0

Inn 1

Cruz 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

4
0

Inn 9

Gonzales 2

PIT
CIN

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  3. B9

    Stephenson struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  9. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  10. B9

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  11. B9

    Myers flied out to right.

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  16. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Dane Myers

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  17. B9

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  18. B9

    Steer struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

    −0.5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  23. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  24. B9

    Soto relieved Lawrence

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  27. T9

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  28. T9

    Cruz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 8·CIN 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

8

Runs

3

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

16

TB

9

2

HR

1

5

BB

3

10

K

9

10

LOB

11

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT -145/CIN +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    56.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.0%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.9%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483