Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 24, 2026

FINAL+1SEA

SEA

12-15

STL

14-11

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

31,304 attended

Line movement

43 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
50.5%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.1%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

STL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.4± 2.4medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 3.6medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.1± 2.8low

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.4± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

JJ WetherholtSTL
2.2± 2.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.5high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Bryan WooSEA
2.9± 3.5medium
George KirbySEA
2.9± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

STL

.700

OPS

.718

▶

.728

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.328

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.63

3.62

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 3 · STL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3
STL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.194	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RaleighC	.192	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RodriguezCF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Naylor1B	.198	3	2	1	1	1	1	2
R. ArozarenaLF	.289	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
L. RaleyRF	.284	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.263	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
C. Young2B	.234	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.141	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.069	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	3	4	3	1	5	10

Player

.194

.192

.235

.198

.289

.284

.263

.234

.141

.069

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KirbySP	6.0	5	2	2	1	2	81
M. BrashRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
G. SpeierRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	11
E. BazardoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	8	2	2	1	5	123

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.220	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.233	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.269	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. WalkerRF	.280	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.222	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.270	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.170	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	8	2	0	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	5.1	4	3	3	3	8	90
J. BruihlRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	20
G. SorianoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	11
G. GraceffoRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	23
Team	9.0	4	3	3	5	10	144

Team

SEA

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.