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END 5TH+8CHC

CIN

20-17

CHC

25-12

Live · model leanEnd 5thPolls every 30s

83.0%

CHC wins · current

Pre-game: 63.4% CHC

CIN 0 · 8 CHC

CHC +8

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCHC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 79% WP
Conforto · homered to right center (407 feet).

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.49

R. Lowder

3-2 · 5.09 ERA

S. Imanaga

3-2 · 2.40 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.1% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+35.6ppvs pre-game · CHC favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.1± 4.4low
Edward CabreraCHC
5.3± 2.2low

Hits

Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Carson KellyCHC
1.1± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.4± 2.9low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.2± 2.4high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Michael BuschCHC
0.8± 1.4high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.8± 1.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Brady SingerCIN
3.0± 1.8low
Andrew AbbottCIN
2.9± 3.3low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.9± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Thu, May 7

CIN

Reds

20-17

vs63.4%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

25-12

CIN 36.6%win prob63.4% CHC

CHC 1570 · CIN 1498Box score→

MLBThu, May 7End 5thSeriesCHC lead series 3-0VegasCHC -207

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CIN · CHC

CIN

20-17

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
D. Myers★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	11	.245	.383	.306	0.000
M. McLain★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	15	.205	.314	.318	1.167
E. De La Cruz★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	.262	.335	.503	0.000
S. Stewart★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	.241	.327	.475	0.000
S. Steer★LF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	6	.258	.333	.458	2.000
T. Stephenson★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	.200	.298	.311	0.000
J. Bleday★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	.290	.389	.710	0.000
B. Dunn★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	11	.000	.000	.000	0.000
K. Hayes★3B	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	.140	.200	.237	2.000
Team	4-19	19	0	4	0	0	2	8	72				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
R. Lowder★SP	3.0	1	3	3	4	1	1	59-28	5.40	59
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	4	5	5	1	0	0	27-14	5.40	27
L. MeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	16-10	2.25	16
Team	5.0	6	8	8	5	2	1	102-52		102

CHC

25-12

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
N. Hoerner★2B	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	10	.291	.365	.446	0.667
M. Ballesteros★C	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	11	.286	.350	.538	0.000
A. Bregman★3B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	8	.242	.341	.349	0.333
I. Happ★LF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	14	.244	.378	.504	0.333
M. Busch★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	16	.234	.340	.365	0.667
M. Conforto★RF	2-2	2	2	2	2	1	1	0	9	.343	.455	.629	3.500
D. Swanson★SS	0-3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	16	.202	.315	.379	0.000
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	1-1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	8	.252	.320	.396	2.000
M. Amaya★C	1-1	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	10	.232	.368	.357	2.000
Team	6-19	19	8	6	8	1	5	2	102				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
S. Imanaga★SP	5.0	4	0	0	2	8	0	72-49	2.14	72
Team	5.0	4	0	0	2	8	0	72-49		72

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

CHC lead series 3-0

May 4

CIN4@

CHC5

May 5

CIN2@

CHC3

May 6

CIN6@

CHC7

May 7

CIN@

CHCtoday

Season series

CHC lead series 3-0

May 4

CIN4@

CHC5

May 5

CIN2@

CHC3

May 6

CIN6@

CHC7

May 7

CIN@

CHCtoday

Jul 10

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 11

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 12

CHC@

CINupcoming

Aug 28

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 29

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 30

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Sep 18

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 19

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 20

CHC@

CINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

1.5pt· 3.2h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

8.0pt· 3.2h

Moneyline

CIN+16937%

CHC-20767%

5· 3.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

+8.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CINSP

R. Lowder

#25 · 3-2

ERA

5.09

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

PIT1.1 IP · 8 ER · 1 KL(3-2)

4/26vs

DET5.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K-

4/20@

TB6.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(3-1)

CHCSP

S. Imanaga

#18 · 3-2

ERA

2.40

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vs

ARI7.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 KW(3-2)

4/26@

LAD5.1 IP · 4 ER · 6 KL(2-2)

4/21vs

PHI7.0 IP · 1 ER · 1 KW(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CIN1L · 7R · 1S

1
D. Myers
CF · #17
R
2
M. McLain
SS · #9
R
3
E. De La Cruz
DH · #44
B
4
S. Stewart
2B · #27
R
5
S. Steer
1B · #7
R
6
T. Stephenson
C · #37
R
7
J. Bleday
LF · #22
L
8
B. Dunn
RF · #59
R
9
K. Hayes
3B · #3
R

CHC4L · 4R · 1S

1
N. Hoerner
2B · #2
R
2
M. Ballesteros
DH · #25
L
3
A. Bregman
3B · #3
R
4
I. Happ
LF · #8
B
5
M. Busch
1B · #29
L
6
M. Conforto
RF · #20
L
7
D. Swanson
SS · #7
R
8
P. Crow-Armstrong
CF · #4
L
9
M. Amaya
C · #9
R

Live · top performers so far

End 5th

Game flowCIN ↔ CHC

Just happened

End of the 5th inning

CIN

S. Steer

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Lowder

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 7 ER

CHC

M. Conforto

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

S. Imanaga

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 0 ER

How it's going

CHC lead CIN 8-0 (End 5th).

Win probability

CHC vs CIN

Score progression

0 lead changes

CIN0

CHC8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1

+9pp→ 79% WP

Conforto · homered to right center (407 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0
CHC	0	1	0	7	0	8

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · CHC won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Conforto 1

Inn 3

Inn 4

Amaya 2

Inn 5

CIN

CHC

Game flow · key plays

B4
Conforto walked, Bregman scored, Busch to second, Happ to third.
CIN 0·CHC 2
+4pp
B4
Busch singled to right, Happ to second, Bregman to third.
CIN 0·CHC 1
+3pp
B3
Hoerner grounded into double play, third to second to first, Amaya out at second, Crow-Armstrong to third.
CIN 0·CHC 1
−6pp
T3
Hayes singled to left.
CIN 0·CHC 1
−4pp
B2
Conforto homered to right center (407 feet).
CIN 0·CHC 1
+9pp
T2
Steer singled to center.
CIN 0·CHC 0
−5pp

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 9·CIN +169/CHC -207

DraftKings · via ESPN