MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PIT

PIT

2-3

CIN

3-2

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

22,390 attended

Line movement

16 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
57.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.2%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.5%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 1.1high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.9high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.5± 3.2high
JJ BledayCIN
2.0± 1.9high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.8high
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.6± 2.5medium
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CIN

.739

OPS

◀

.717

.710

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.96

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

4.25

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 8 · CIN 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	8
CIN	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.231	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. O'HearnRF	.421	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.182	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.063	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.333	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.318	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
O. CruzCF	.278	4	3	3	3	2	0	1
N. Yorke3B	.125	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
S. Horwitz1B	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	8	8	4	3	7

Player

.231

.421

.182

.063

.333

.318

.200

.278

.125

.083

.182

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	4.1	0	1	0	6	6	81
Y. RamirezRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	10
H. BarcoRP	2.0	4	2	2	1	3	47
D. SantanaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
G. SotoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
Team	9.0	6	3	2	8	12	172

Player

4.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
M. McLain2B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
E. De La CruzSS	.200	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.563	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
E. SuarezDH	.190	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. BensonRF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. TrevinoC	.143	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. Hayes3B	.083	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. MyersCF	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	2	2	8	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WilliamsonSP	4.2	6	6	6	2	3	94
B. BurkeRP	2.1	0	0	0	1	2	20
S. MollRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	20
Team	9.0	8	8	8	3	7	149

Team

PIT

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.