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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CLE
CLE

CLE

3-2

4
2
LAD

LAD

3-1

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,173 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL67.6%59.6%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 61.6%May 4, 11 AMMay 24, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 4 · LAD 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0010003004
LAD0000000022

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+163

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

36.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -199

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 4–2.

CLE +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE3-2
4
2
LAD3-1
CLE3-2·LAD3-1
CLE

CLE

3-2

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
3-55131001
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-44000011
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-55010001
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22000000
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-44012001
SPRINT27.457
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000011
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-44000001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
2-44220001
SPRINT24.43
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.765
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins1B
0-11001011
Team9-3535494038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
6.0500050
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.2200000
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.1000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0222000
Team9.0922060
LAD

LAD

3-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44111001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44001000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33010001
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33010000
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-22010000
W. SmithW. SmithC
0-11000000
Team9-3333292006
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
4.0411240
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0100020
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
4.0433120
Team9.0944380

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Mar 31CLECLE4@LADLAD2today
Apr 1CLECLE1@LADLAD4
Apr 2CLECLE4@LADLAD1

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Mar 31CLECLE4@LADLAD2today
Apr 1CLECLE1@LADLAD4
Apr 2CLECLE4@LADLAD1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+16338%
LADLAD-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 7th Inning

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 5 H

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat LAD 4-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 54% WP

Hedges · doubled to right.

CLEBottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 56% WP

Ohtani · lined out to center.

CLETop 7th Inning · 4-0
+14pp→ 94% WP

Schneemann · doubled to center, Martínez scored and Kwan scored, Hoskins to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0010003004
LAD0000000022

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Kwan 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Schneemann 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Betts 1

CLE
LAD

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Pages grounded out to third.

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  10. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  11. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  12. B9

    Freeman grounded out to first, Betts scored.

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

    −3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  18. B9

    Betts to third on wild pitch by Smith.

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  19. B9

    Betts to third on wild pitch by Smith.

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  23. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 2

  24. B9

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  25. B9

    T. Hernández grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

    −5pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  30. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

2

9

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

12

TB

11

0

HR

0

3

BB

0

8

K

6

21

LOB

11

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·CLE +163/LAD -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 2, 26sim 98
    54
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    51
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    253
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 91
    251
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 91
    254
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 90
    282
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.