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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CLE
CLE

CLE

4-3

4
1
LAD

LAD

4-2

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
45,556 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

72.2%

open 72.2%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL76.2%68.2%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 4 · LAD 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0020000204
LAD0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+244

Close price

+244

Open no-vig

27.8%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 98
    54
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 98
    51
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    253
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 90
    251
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 90
    254
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 90
    160
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -308

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 4–1.

CLE +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CLE4-3
4
1
LAD4-2
CLE4-3·LAD4-2
CLE

CLE

4-3

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000010
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-22100010
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33112110
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-44000001
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-44000001
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
2-44020001
SPRINT27.354
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.457
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33111102
SPRINT26.530
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010000
Team6-3030463235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
7.02003100
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.2200010
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.1000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0111001
Team9.05113121
LAD

LAD

4-2

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33000012
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33000010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-44000003
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000002
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33010002
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
3-33030000
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-22000012
Team5-29291511312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.0422121
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.2111210
T. ScottT. ScottRP
0.1111011
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000010
Team9.0644352

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Mar 31CLECLE4@LADLAD2
Apr 1CLECLE1@LADLAD4
Apr 2CLECLE4@LADLAD1today

Season series

CLE wins series 2-1

Mar 31CLECLE4@LADLAD2
Apr 1CLECLE1@LADLAD4
Apr 2CLECLE4@LADLAD1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+24429%
LADLAD-30875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 6th Inning

CLECLE
J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat LAD 4-1. Ohtani's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 56% WP

Arias · homered to center (407 feet).

CLEBottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 72% WP

Ohtani · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Freeland out at second, Pages to third.

CLETop 8th Inning · 4-0
+12pp→ 96% WP

Ram · írez homered to left (376 feet), Martínez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0020000204
LAD0000000011

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Arias 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Ram 2

0
1

Inn 9

Freeman 1

CLE
LAD

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  3. B9

    Smith flied out to center.

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  11. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Will Smith

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  12. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  13. B9

    Freeman homered to center (407 feet).

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  17. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 1

  18. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  19. B9

    Betts flied out to left.

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  23. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  24. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  25. B9

    Tucker flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

    −1pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·LAD 0

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

1

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

13

TB

9

2

HR

1

3

BB

3

5

K

12

9

LOB

12

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·CLE +244/LAD -308

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.