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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
CLE

CLE

3-3

1
4
LAD

LAD

4-1

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,614 attended

Line movement

5 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

70.9%

open 70.9%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL74.9%66.9%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 24, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

CLE 1 · LAD 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000000011
LAD000101024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 2, 26sim 98
    54
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    54
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 92
    253
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 90
    251
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 89
    160
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 89
    282
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+229

Close price

+229

Open no-vig

29.1%

Close no-vig

29.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -286

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Cleveland Guardians, 4–1.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Rhys Hoskins

Rhys Hoskins

1B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE3-3
1
4
LAD4-1
CLE3-3·LAD4-1
CLE

CLE

3-3

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-22000020
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000000
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22100010
SPRINT25.411
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-33010012
SPRINT24.96
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-44000001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT27.354
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-22000011
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000001
C. KayfusC. KayfusLF
0-22000002
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000001
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
0-11000001
Team2-29291210510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
4.0411240
K. AllardK. AllardRP
2.2211151
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.1422020
Team8.010443111
LAD

LAD

4-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33010021
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44010002
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44110001
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-33221110
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44021002
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-44022001
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-22000000
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-22000001
Team10-343441041311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.0100360
SPRINT2744
A. VesiaA. Vesia★RP
1.0000010
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000110
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0111120
Team9.02115100

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

10

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Mar 31CLECLE4@LADLAD2
Apr 1CLECLE1@LADLAD4today
Apr 2CLECLE4@LADLAD1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 31CLECLE4@LADLAD2
Apr 1CLECLE1@LADLAD4today
Apr 2CLECLE4@LADLAD1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+22930%
LADLAD-28674%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CLECLE
R. Hoskins

R. Hoskins

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat CLE 4-1.

Win probability

LAD vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 80% WP

Pages · singled to right, Smith scored, T. Hernández to third.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 87% WP

Muncy · homered to right (410 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000000011
LAD00010102—4

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · LAD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Pages 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Muncy 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Hern 1

1

Inn 9

Rocchio 1

CLE
LAD

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  2. T9

    Martínez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  9. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Angel Martinez

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  10. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  11. T9

    Schneemann struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

    +4pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  16. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Daniel Schneemann

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  17. T9

    Schneemann hit for Arias

    ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  18. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  19. T9

    Rocchio singled to right, Manzardo scored, Hoskins to second.

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

    −4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  26. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    CLE 1·LAD 4

  27. T9

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  28. T9

    Naylor flied out to right, Manzardo to third.

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

    +3pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·LAD 4

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

4

2

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

3

TB

13

0

HR

1

5

BB

3

10

K

11

14

LOB

19

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·CLE +229/LAD -286

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.