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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CIN
PIT

PIT

1-3

0
2
CIN

CIN

3-1

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
13,626 attended

Line movement

5 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CIN no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0CIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%CIN NO-VIG %MODEL 56.5%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PIT 0 · CIN 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000000000
CIN000200002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasCIN -136

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 2–0.

CIN -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT1-3
0
2
CIN3-1
PIT1-3·CIN3-1
PIT

PIT

1-3

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-22010021
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000001
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000011
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-22010020
SPRINT26.735
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000002
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT24.85
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.586
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000003
Team4-30300400511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
6.0422430
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000110
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000030
Team8.0422570
CIN

CIN

3-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-33000011
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000000
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-33010011
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-22110021
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44110002
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22001000
SPRINT28.483
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT2872
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22000010
Team4-2626242057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
5.0100370
J. FrancoJ. FrancoRP
1.2300000
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.1000030
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0000210
Team9.04005110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      33%·83.9 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·90.9 mph·29% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      44%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.2 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      87%·93.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.5 mph·— whiff

CIN

  • C. Burns
    78 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·90.1 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Franco
    35 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      51%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      55%·86.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      45%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    18 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      61%·92.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      39%·98.8 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Mar 30PITPIT0@CINCIN2today
Mar 31PITPIT8@CINCIN3
Apr 1PITPIT8@CINCIN3

Season series

CIN leads series 1-0

Mar 30PITPIT0@CINCIN2today
Mar 31PITPIT8@CINCIN3
Apr 1PITPIT8@CINCIN3
May 1CINCIN1@PITPIT9
May 2CINCIN7@PITPIT17
May 3CINCIN0@PITPIT1
Jun 26CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jun 27CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jun 28CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jul 30PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Jul 31PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Aug 1PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Aug 2PITPIT@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+11347%
CINCIN-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 4th Inning

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CIN beat PIT 2-0.

Win probability

CIN vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 82% WP

Benson · tripled to right, Suárez scored.

CINTop 6th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 85% WP

Reynolds · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Lowe out at second.

CINTop 9th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 86% WP

Triolo · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000000000
CIN00020000—2

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Steer 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
CIN

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  2. T9

    Gonzales popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  5. T9

    Connor Phillips pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  6. T9

    Cook ran for O'Hearn

    ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  7. T9

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  8. T9

    Horwitz flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

    +8pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  12. T9

    Connor Phillips pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  13. T9

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  14. T9

    Triolo struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

    +10pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  18. T9

    Connor Phillips pitches to Jared Triolo

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  19. T9

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  20. T9

    O'Hearn walked, Ozuna to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

    −10pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  29. T9

    Connor Phillips pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

  30. T9

    ·

    PIT 0·CIN 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

0

Runs

2

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

4

TB

6

0

HR

0

5

BB

5

11

K

7

20

LOB

10

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 8.5·PIT +113/CIN -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    56.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.7%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.5%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 95
    110
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    261
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    263
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    74
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    172
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483