MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

3-0

0-3

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

40,634 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SF no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
42.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.7%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.7%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SF vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium
Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.6± 3.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high
Casey SchmittSF
2.1± 3.2high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.0high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

.763

OPS

◀

.717

.725

.330

OBP

◀

.319

.309

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.52

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · SF 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.222	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. JudgeRF	.154	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.364	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
B. Rice1B	.250	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
G. StantonDH	.500	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CaballeroSS	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. McMahon3B	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WellsC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		33	3	7	3	1	2	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.222

.154

.364

.250

.500

.182

.250

.125

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. WarrenSP	4.1	5	1	1	2	3	83
B. HeadrickRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14
J. BirdRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	18
T. HillRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	11
D. BednarRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
Team	9.0	9	1	1	3	8	146

Player

4.1

0.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

146

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. LeeRF	.100	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Chapman3B	.111	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. Arraez2B	.273	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. Devers1B	.250	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
H. RamosLF	.300	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
W. AdamesSS	.091	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. BaderCF	.100	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SchmittDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OlivaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	9	1	0	3	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. MahleSP	4.0	5	2	2	1	5	80
R. BoruckiRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	15
M. GageRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
K. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
E. MillerRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	20
J. BrubakerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	10	149

Team

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SF vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.