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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CLE

CLE

2-1

6
5
SEA

SEA

1-2

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
43,283 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

63.0%

open 63.0%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL67.0%59.0%SEA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 6 · SEA 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CLE00000210036
SEA01010000125

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+158

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

37.0%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasSEA -193

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

CLE +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter

RF

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Luke Raley

Luke Raley

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
CLE2-1
6
5
SEA1-2
CLE2-1·SEA1-2
CLE

CLE

2-1

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-55121000
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-55112103
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-55111000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-55011003
SPRINT25.411
D. FryD. Fry★RF
2-55020003
SPRINT25.716
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000000
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44010002
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33100012
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-22200020
Team8-38386851313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
3.2422350
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.2000010
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.2200000
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2000210
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.1000110
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0211120
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0121021
Team10.09547121
SEA

SEA

1-2

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-22000000
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44010012
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44011011
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-33000022
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44210010
SPRINT26.941
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-55120001
SPRINT25.18
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
2-33021000
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-44000011
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-55110003
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000000
R. BlissR. Bliss2B
0-22000002
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
1-11112110
SPRINT28.175
Team9-38385941712
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
6.0422190
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2111210
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.1000000
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0100010
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0232011
Team10.08653131

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

6

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 27CLECLE6@SEASEA4
Mar 28CLECLE1@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE6@SEASEA5today
Mar 29CLECLE0@SEASEA8

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Mar 27CLECLE6@SEASEA4
Mar 28CLECLE1@SEASEA5
Mar 29CLECLE6@SEASEA5today
Mar 29CLECLE0@SEASEA8
Jun 26SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 27SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 28SEASEA@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+15839%
SEASEA-19366%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 40pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
L. Raley

L. Raley

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat SEA 6-5. Rodr's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

SEA vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+27pp→ 44% WP

Young · doubled to left.

SEABottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+40pp→ 56% WP

Rodr · íguez singled to center, Young scored.

CLETop 10th Inning · 4-3
+26pp→ 77% WP

Kwan · reached on bunt single to third, Rocchio scored on error, Kwan safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Donovan.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CLE00000210036
SEA01010000125

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · SEA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Robles 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Rivas 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Ram 1

1
0

Inn 7

Kwan 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Rodr 1

3
2

Inn 10

DeLauter 2

Raley 2

CLE
SEA

Play-by-play · 696 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  2. B10

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  3. B10

    Young struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

    −3pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  9. B10

    Connor Brogdon pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  10. B10

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  11. B10

    Rivas struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

    −5pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  13. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  14. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  15. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  17. B10

    Connor Brogdon pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  18. B10

    ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  19. B10

    Raley homered to center (411 feet), Arozarena scored.

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

    +4pp

  20. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  21. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  22. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  23. B10

    Connor Brogdon pitches to Luke Raley

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 5

  24. B10

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  25. B10

    Donovan flied out to center, Arozarena to third.

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

    −4pp

  26. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  27. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  28. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  29. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

  30. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 1

    · ·

    CLE 6·SEA 3

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

6

Runs

5

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

14

TB

14

1

HR

1

3

BB

7

13

K

12

9

LOB

23

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7·CLE +158/SEA -193

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 27, 26sim 99
    56
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 98
    165
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    126
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    50
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 93
    24
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 92
    51
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SEA vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.