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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8CLE
KC

KC

5-7

2
10
CLE

CLE

8-5

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
14,734 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CLE no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0CLE SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL48.9%40.9%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

KC 2 · CLE 10 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0001100002
CLE3100100510

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    62
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 96
    138
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    68
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    295
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 95
    292
    8(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 94
    238
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasKC -136

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Kansas City Royals, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC5-7
2
10
CLE8-5
KC5-7·CLE8-5
KC

KC

5-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44000001
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-22100022
SPRINT28.688
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000012
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT25.411
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-22000001
I. CollinsI. CollinsLF
0-11000001
Team5-32322510314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RagansC. Ragans★SP
0.2233120
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
3.0611120
A. LangeA. LangeRP
2.1311020
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.1455231
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0.2100000
Team8.0161010491
CLE

CLE

8-5

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44210011
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
4-55144101
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-44121011
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-22100011
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-55112001
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
3-44131000
SPRINT24.96
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT26.530
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-44110002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33111010
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo1B
1-22010001
Team16-3737101610149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
5.2321290
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.1000030
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2200010
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.1000110
Team9.05213140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • L. Avila
    62 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·96.3 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    41 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.1 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      22%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    37 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      30%·90.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      24%·95.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Ragans
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Tolbert
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • EP
      100%·51.7 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    88 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.9 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      23%·83.2 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.6 mph·64% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.3 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      42%·82.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      52%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      38%·82.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

16

2

Runs

10

1

Errors

2

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Apr 6KCKC4@CLECLE2
Apr 7KCKC1@CLECLE2
Apr 8KCKC2@CLECLE10today

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Apr 6KCKC4@CLECLE2
Apr 7KCKC1@CLECLE2
Apr 8KCKC2@CLECLE10today
May 4CLECLE2@KCKC6
May 5CLECLE3@KCKC5
May 6CLECLE3@KCKC1
May 7CLECLE8@KCKC5
Aug 28KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 29KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 30KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 25CLECLE@KCKCupcoming
Sep 26CLECLE@KCKCupcoming
Sep 27CLECLE@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-13658%
CLECLE+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Avila

L. Avila

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat KC 10-2. DeLauter's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

CLE vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+20pp→ 74% WP

DeLauter · doubled to center, Fry scored and Ramírez scored.

KCTop 4th Inning · 1-4
+8pp→ 22% WP

Witt Jr. · doubled to left, Garcia scored.

KCTop 5th Inning · 2-4
+9pp→ 23% WP

Marte · doubled to center, Thomas scored on fielding error by center fielder Kwan.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0001100002
CLE31001005—10

Period scoring

KC won 1 · CLE won 3

0
3

Inn 1

DeLauter 2

0
1

Inn 2

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Jr. 1

1
1

Inn 5

Marte 1

Brito 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
5

Inn 8

Mart 4

0

Inn 9

KC
CLE

Play-by-play · 587 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  2. T9

    Marte lined out to center.

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  7. T9

    Matt Festa pitches to Starling Marte

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  8. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  9. T9

    India popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  12. T9

    Thomas to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  13. T9

    Thomas to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  17. T9

    Matt Festa pitches to Jonathan India

    · ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  18. T9

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  19. T9

    Thomas walked.

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  26. T9

    Matt Festa pitches to Lane Thomas

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  27. T9

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  28. T9

    Jensen struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·CLE 10

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

10

5

Hits

16

1

Errors

2

7

TB

26

0

HR

1

3

BB

4

14

K

9

15

LOB

11

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7·KC -136/CLE +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

CLE vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    57.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.