• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1CIN
BOS

BOS

1-2

2
3
CIN

CIN

2-1

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
27,084 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CIN no-vig %

46.0%

open 46.0%

+2.0+1.0CIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.0%42.0%CIN NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

BOS 2 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0002000002
CIN000003003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -130

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Boston Red Sox, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

CIN +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS1-2
2
3
CIN2-1
BOS1-2·CIN2-1
BOS

BOS

1-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000012
SPRINT27.457
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-55000002
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-22000020
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
3-44132100
SPRINT2872
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-44000002
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-22000020
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-22000001
C. WongC. Wong★C
2-33020000
SPRINT27.354
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
1-22010000
SPRINT2744
C. RafaelaC. RafaelaCF
0-11000000
Team7-3232272167
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
5.1511260
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
0.2122111
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
2.0100120
Team8.0733491
CIN

CIN

2-1

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000003
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-22120020
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33113111
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.483
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-33010000
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000001
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-33000001
Team7-2929373149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LowderR. Lowder★SP
5.0322251
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.1100100
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2100000
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0100220
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0100100
Team9.0722671

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • C. Early
    96 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.4 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Moran
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      36%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      12%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      60%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • R. Lowder
    86 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.7 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      28%·93.2 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.1 mph·75% whiff
  • B. Burke
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      59%·93.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      41%·83.9 mph·60% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      85%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      75%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Mar 26BOSBOS3@CINCIN0
Mar 28BOSBOS5@CINCIN6
Mar 29BOSBOS2@CINCIN3today

Season series

CIN wins series 2-1

Mar 26BOSBOS3@CINCIN0
Mar 28BOSBOS5@CINCIN6
Mar 29BOSBOS2@CINCIN3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-13057%
CINCIN+10848%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 43pp · Bottom 6th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Lowder

R. Lowder

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat BOS 3-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 6th inning (43pp).

Win probability

CIN vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 81% WP

Abreu · homered to right center (385 feet), Contreras scored.

CINBottom 6th Inning · 2-3
+43pp→ 72% WP

Suárez homered to left center (431 feet), McLain scored and Stewart scored.

CINTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+14pp→ 100% WP

Story · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0002000002
CIN00000300—3

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Abreu 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
CIN

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  2. T9

    Story flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

    +14pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  4. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Trevor Story

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  5. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  6. T9

    Anthony intentionally walked.

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

    −3pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  11. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Roman Anthony

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  12. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  13. T9

    Rafaela lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

    +9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  17. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  18. T9

    Rafaela hit for Wong

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  19. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  20. T9

    Monasterio doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

    −12pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  24. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Andruw Monasterio

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  25. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  26. T9

    Yoshida flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

    +7pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  29. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

  30. T9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    BOS 2·CIN 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

13

TB

11

1

HR

1

6

BB

4

7

K

9

14

LOB

12

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·BOS -130/CIN +108

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+108

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.0%

Close no-vig

46.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 98
    23
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    154
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    21
    18(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    122
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.7%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.