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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2LAD
LAD

LAD

93-69

3
1
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,710 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 3 · TOR 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0030000003
TOR0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Oct 31·Final/SeriesLAD win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD93-69
3
1
TOR94-68
LAD93-69·TOR94-68
LAD

LAD

93-69

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33110011
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33111011
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-33012010
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000003
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000002
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
0-44000003
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44110000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33000001
Team4-31313430412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.0511160
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
1.0100020
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
1.0200100
T. GlasnowT. GlasnowSP
1.0000000
Team9.0811280
TOR

TOR

94-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44021000
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-44000000
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33000002
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-44120001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000001
Team8-3333181028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
6.0333280
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1000010
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1100100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.1000110
C. BassittC. BassittSP
1.0000020
Team9.04334120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    38 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      32%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      26%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.4 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
  • Y. Yamamoto
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      56%·91.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      15%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wrobleski
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      52%·86.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.1 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • S. Dominguez
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      41%·85.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      11%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Bassitt
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      54%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·71.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      15%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • KC
      67%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      22%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

3

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Oct 25LADLAD4@TORTOR11
Oct 26LADLAD5@TORTOR1
Oct 28TORTOR5@LADLAD6
Oct 29TORTOR6@LADLAD2
Oct 30TORTOR6@LADLAD1
Nov 1LADLAD3@TORTOR1today
Nov 2LADLAD5@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 3-1. Gim's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+15pp→ 82% WP

Betts · singled to left, Ohtani scored and Smith scored, Freeman to second.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 83% WP

Bichette · fouled out to shortstop.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+27pp→ 100% WP

Gim · énez lined into double play, left to second, Barger doubled off second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0030000003
TOR0010000001

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · TOR won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
1

Inn 3

Betts 2

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
TOR

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Giménez lined into double play, left to second, Barger doubled off second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

    −27pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Tyler Glasnow pitches to Andres Gimenez

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  8. B9

    Clement popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

    −16pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  10. B9

    Tyler Glasnow pitches to Ernie Clement

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Glasnow relieved Sasaki

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  12. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Barger hit a ground rule double, Straw to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

    +25pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Addison Barger

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Straw ran for Kirk

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  21. B9

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Kirk hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

    +9pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  27. B9

    Dean in center field.

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·TOR 1

  30. T9

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

3

Runs

1

4

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

7

TB

12

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

12

K

8

8

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 26, 25sim 96
    195
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 30, 25sim 95
    146
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 93
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 2, 25sim 92
    195
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 14, 25sim 92
    192
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 29, 25sim 91
    146
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    53.8%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.