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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

93-69

2
1
MIL

MIL

97-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
41,737 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 2 · MIL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000010012
MIL0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 9, 25sim 97
    221
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 95
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 15, 25sim 95
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 94
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 3, 25sim 94
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 93
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Oct 13·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD93-69
2
1
MIL97-65
LAD93-69·MIL97-65
LAD

LAD

93-69

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-22000030
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44001010
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-55121101
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-44020000
SPRINT2744
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-33010011
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-22100020
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
2-44020002
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000000
A. CallA. CallLF
0-11000000
Team7-3131272184
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
8.01000100
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
0.2111200
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000110
Team9.02113110
MIL

MIL

97-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-33001002
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000012
SPRINT27.148
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-33000011
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000002
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-33000000
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33000001
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.175
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-22100012
SPRINT27.867
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000000
J. BauersJ. Bauers1B
1-11010000
SPRINT2744
Team2-27271210311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AshbyA. Ashby★RP
1.0000110
Q. PriesterQ. PriesterSP
4.0300310
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
0.1211101
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.2000010
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0100010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0111300
Team9.0722841

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

MIL

  • A. Ashby
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      44%·98.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      22%·98.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • SI
      55%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      45%·85.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

2

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

LAD lead series 1-0

Oct 14LADLAD2@MILMIL1today
Oct 15LADLAD5@MILMIL1
Oct 16MILMIL1@LADLAD3
Oct 18MILMIL1@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 1 H

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Q. Priester

Q. Priester

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIL 2-1. Turang's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+17pp→ 61% WP

Freeman · homered to right (362 feet).

MILBottom 9th Inning · 2-0
+21pp→ 31% WP

Bauers · hit a ground rule double, Collins to third.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+29pp→ 100% WP

Turang · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000010012
MIL0000000011

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · MIL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Betts 1

Chourio 1

LAD
MIL

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  3. B9

    Turang struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

    −29pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  9. B9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  11. B9

    Contreras walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

    +6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  16. B9

    Yelich stole second.

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  17. B9

    Yelich stole second.

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  20. B9

    Blake Treinen pitches to William Contreras

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  21. B9

    Treinen relieved Sasaki

    ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  22. B9

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  23. B9

    Yelich walked.

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

    +5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 2·MIL 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

12

TB

3

1

HR

0

8

BB

3

4

K

11

23

LOB

4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.