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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TOR
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
2
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,552 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · LAD 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0020004006
LAD0100000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Oct 28·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR94-68
6
2
LAD93-69
TOR94-68·LAD93-69
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44222111
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44011010
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-55021001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000012
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-55110002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33111001
SPRINT27.560
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-44000000
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11001000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000001
Team11-38386116139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
5.1411330
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000010
C. BassittC. BassittSP
2.0100020
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0111110
Team9.0622470
LAD

LAD

93-69

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33000012
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44010000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-44000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT27.354
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-33011011
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
0-33001001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-22000000
A. CallA. CallLF
0-22000001
Team6-3131262047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.0644161
SPRINT2744
A. BandaA. Banda★RP
0.2122100
B. TreinenB. Treinen★RP
0.1200000
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
2.0200130
Team9.01166391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • A. Banda
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      62%·96.3 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 25LADLAD4@TORTOR11
Oct 26LADLAD5@TORTOR1
Oct 28TORTOR5@LADLAD6
Oct 29TORTOR6@LADLAD2today
Oct 30TORTOR6@LADLAD1
Nov 1LADLAD3@TORTOR1
Nov 2LADLAD5@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 3rd Inning

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat LAD 6-2. Guerrero Jr.'s play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+20pp→ 62% WP

Guerrero Jr. · homered to left center (395 feet), Lukes scored.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+7pp→ 59% WP

Muncy · flied out to center.

TORTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 81% WP

Clement · doubled to center, Varsho to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0020004006
LAD0100000012

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Hern 1

2
0

Inn 3

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Edman 1

TOR
LAD

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Call lined out to left.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Muncy to third on a disengagement violation.

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Muncy to third on a disengagement violation.

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  10. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Alex Call

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  11. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  12. B9

    E. Hernández struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

    −1pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  18. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Enrique Hernandez

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  19. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  20. B9

    Edman grounded out to third, T. Hernández scored.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

    −3pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  25. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Tommy Edman

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 2

  26. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  27. B9

    Muncy doubled to right, T. Hernández to third.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

    +3pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  29. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  30. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

7

1

HR

0

3

BB

4

9

K

7

16

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 30, 25sim 96
    146
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 28, 25sim 95
    145
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 26, 25sim 92
    195
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 18, 25sim 92
    81
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 2, 25sim 92
    195
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 1, 25sim 91
    193
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.