Nov 1, 25sim 96
193
14(H)1
EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
FINAL+4LAD
LAD
93-69
51
TOR
94-68
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort
Teoscar HernandezLAD · LFSPRINT28.381
Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,607 attended
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.5%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
53.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.6%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.91 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 85 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shohei OhtaniLAD6.8± 3.4low
- Emmet SheehanLAD5.9± 3.5low
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9± 3.0low
Hits
- Ernie ClementTOR1.2± 0.8high
- Nathan LukesTOR1.2± 1.0high
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Freddie FreemanLAD2.4± 2.5high
- Andy PagesLAD2.3± 2.9high
- Ernie ClementTOR2.1± 2.0high
RBIs
- Andy PagesLAD0.9± 1.0high
- Mookie BettsLAD0.7± 1.6high
- Jesus SanchezTOR0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Eric LauerLAD3.1± 2.8low
- Emmet SheehanLAD2.7± 1.7low
- Roki SasakiLAD2.6± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
LAD 5 · TOR 1 (by 4)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked TOR +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant