
TOR
94-68

LAD
93-69
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TOR wins
TOR 6 · LAD 1 (by 5)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked LAD +5pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
oronto Blue Jays went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 6–1.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B
3-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
LAD · top performer

Enrique Hernandez
1B
3-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreADVANCED


TOR
94-68
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.123 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.354 | ||||||||
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9-33 | 33 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
LAD
93-69
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.381 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 4-30 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | |
| 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
4
6
Runs
1
0
Errors
0
Playoff series
TOR leads series 3-2
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
V. Guerrero Jr.
1BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS
T. Yesavage
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
7.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 3 H
E. Hernández
1BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS
B. Snell
SPStarting pitcher
6.2 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 4 BB
How it ended
TOR beat LAD 6-1.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
LAD vs TOR
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactE. Hern · ández homered to left (407 feet).
Varsho · tripled to right.
Schneider · walked.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
TOR won 4 · LAD won 1
Inn 1
Jr. 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Hern 1
Inn 4
Clement 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Jr. 1
Inn 8
Kiner-Falefa 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 573 plays
End of the 9th inning
TOR 6·LAD 1
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
T. Hernández struck out swinging.
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Jeff Hoffman pitches to Teoscar Hernandez
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Freeman struck out swinging.
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Jeff Hoffman pitches to Freddie Freeman
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Betts flied out to left.
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
−1pp
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Jeff Hoffman pitches to Mookie Betts
· ·
TOR 6·LAD 1
·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Smith singled to left.
·
TOR 6·LAD 1
+1pp
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
TOR 6·LAD 1
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
6
Runs
1
9
Hits
4
0
Errors
0
17
TB
7
2
HR
1
6
BB
1
7
K
15
17
LOB
7
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 85 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.9%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
54.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.33 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs