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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TOR
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
1
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,175 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · LAD 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR2001002106
LAD0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Oct 29·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Enrique Hernandez

Enrique Hernandez

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
TOR94-68
6
1
LAD93-69
TOR94-68·LAD93-69
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33111112
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33111120
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55011001
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-44010011
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44110000
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33111000
SPRINT27.354
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-33120010
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44011001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33100012
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team9-3333695267
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
7.03110121
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000110
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100020
Team9.04111151
LAD

LAD

93-69

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-44000001
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-33000003
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44020002
SPRINT28.381
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-33000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000001
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-33111102
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-22000011
Team4-30301411115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
6.2655472
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.1211000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000000
Team9.0966672

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

6

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

TOR leads series 3-2

Oct 25LADLAD4@TORTOR11
Oct 26LADLAD5@TORTOR1
Oct 28TORTOR5@LADLAD6
Oct 29TORTOR6@LADLAD2
Oct 30TORTOR6@LADLAD1today
Nov 1LADLAD3@TORTOR1
Nov 2LADLAD5@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 3 H

LADLAD
E. Hernández

E. Hernández

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TOR beat LAD 6-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 58% WP

E. Hern · ández homered to left (407 feet).

TORTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 56% WP

Varsho · tripled to right.

TORTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Schneider · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR2001002106
LAD0010000001

Period scoring

TOR won 4 · LAD won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Hern 1

1
0

Inn 4

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Jr. 1

1
0

Inn 8

Kiner-Falefa 1

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
LAD

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  3. B9

    T. Hernández struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  9. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  11. B9

    Freeman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  17. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  18. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  19. B9

    Betts flied out to left.

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

    −1pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  26. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  27. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  28. B9

    Smith singled to left.

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

    +1pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 6·LAD 1

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

6

Runs

1

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

17

TB

7

2

HR

1

6

BB

1

7

K

15

17

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 11 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

LAD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 26, 25sim 96
    195
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 29, 25sim 96
    146
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 1, 25sim 95
    193
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 28, 25sim 95
    145
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 2, 25sim 94
    195
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 18, 25sim 92
    81
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs