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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
4
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,713 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · TOR 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
LAD000101011015
TOR003001000004

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 26, 25sim 95
    195
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 30, 25sim 94
    146
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 28, 25sim 93
    145
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 1, 25sim 92
    193
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 25, 25sim 92
    194
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 29, 25sim 92
    146
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Nov 1·Final/SeriesLAD win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final/11
LAD93-69
5
4
TOR94-68
LAD93-69·TOR94-68
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55020010
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-66221101
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-66010000
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33100020
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
3-44131111
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33001010
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-33001000
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-55010002
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
2-55121101
SPRINT26.123
A. PagesA. PagesCF
0-11000000
Team11-41415115355
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2.1533231
SPRINT2744
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
1.1200020
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
2.1311020
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
2.2100110
E. SheehanE. SheehanSP
1.0200020
B. SnellB. SnellSP
1.1100120
Team11.014444121
TOR

TOR

94-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-66130003
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000002
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-55110011
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44123111
SPRINT25.716
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-44020021
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-55020000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-55000002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
3-55130000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44011001
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team14-434341441412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
4.1411130
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
0.2100000
C. BassittC. BassittSP
1.0211100
T. YesavageT. YesavageSP
1.2111101
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.1111021
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0100200
S. BieberS. BieberSP
1.0111001
Team11.01155553

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

14

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

LAD win series 4-3

Oct 25LADLAD4@TORTOR11
Oct 26LADLAD5@TORTOR1
Oct 28TORTOR5@LADLAD6
Oct 29TORTOR6@LADLAD2
Oct 30TORTOR6@LADLAD1
Nov 1LADLAD3@TORTOR1
Nov 2LADLAD5@TORTOR4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 46pp · Bottom 11th Inning

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TORTOR
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 5-4. Kirk's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

TOR vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+32pp→ 40% WP

Rojas · homered to left (387 feet).

LADTop 11th Inning · 5-4
+39pp→ 74% WP

Smith · homered to left (366 feet).

LADBottom 11th Inning · 5-4
+46pp→ 100% WP

Kirk · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Barger out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
LAD000101011015
TOR003001000004

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Bichette 3

1
0

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Edman 1

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Muncy 1

1
0

Inn 9

Rojas 1

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

Smith 1

LAD
TOR

Play-by-play · 729 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  2. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  3. B11

    Kirk grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Barger out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

    −46pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  5. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  6. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  7. B11

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  8. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  9. B11

    Barger walked.

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

    +1pp

  10. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  11. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  12. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  13. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  14. B11

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Addison Barger

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  15. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  16. B11

    Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Guerrero Jr. to third.

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

    −5pp

  17. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  18. B11

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  19. B11

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  20. B11

    Guerrero Jr. doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

    +24pp

  21. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  22. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  23. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  24. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  25. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  26. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  27. B11

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  28. B11

    Kim at second base.

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  29. B11

    Pages in right field.

    LAD 5·TOR 4

  30. B11

    Dean in center field.

    LAD 5·TOR 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

5

Runs

4

11

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

21

TB

20

3

HR

1

5

BB

4

5

K

12

23

LOB

31

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

TOR vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.