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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
TOR

TOR

94-68

5
6
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,654 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

TOR 5 · LAD 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112131415161718R
TOR0004001000000000005
LAD0110201000000000016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 29, 25sim 95
    146
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 30, 25sim 95
    146
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 2, 25sim 93
    195
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 26, 25sim 91
    195
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Nov 1, 25sim 90
    193
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 90
    101
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Oct 27·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Toronto Blue Jays, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk

C

1.917OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

3.500OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/18
TOR94-68
5
6
LAD93-69
TOR94-68·LAD93-69
TOR

TOR

94-68

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-33000002
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-88010011
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-77220020
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44121001
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-66020021
SPRINT26.838
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-44123120
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-44120001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-88010001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-66011013
T. FranceT. France1B
1-33010001
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
1-33010001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
0-44000012
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
0-33000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-44000001
Team15-676751551916
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
4.1533132
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1211000
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1200020
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0111211
C. BassittC. BassittSP
1.0000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
2.0100110
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.1100120
E. LauerE. LauerSP
4.2200420
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0211111
Team17.0166610134
LAD

LAD

93-69

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
4-44343250
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-88010011
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-77122120
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-66010014
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-77000013
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
4-88141100
SPRINT28.381
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-88010002
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
2-55120003
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-55000000
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-22000000
A. CallA. CallLF
1-33010000
Team16-6363616641013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
4.2542351
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.1000000
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
1.2100020
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1311000
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.1100000
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
1.2100200
E. SheehanE. SheehanSP
2.2300220
C. KershawC. KershawSP
0.1000000
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
2.0000020
W. KleinW. KleinRP
4.0100250
Team18.015539161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • L. Varland
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      35%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·98.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Bassitt
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      35%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      15%·70.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      75%·82.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.1 mph·0% whiff

LAD

  • J. Dreyer
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.9 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      41%·87.9 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Treinen
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·84.4 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

16

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

2

Playoff series

LAD lead series 2-1

Oct 25LADLAD4@TORTOR11
Oct 26LADLAD5@TORTOR1
Oct 28TORTOR5@LADLAD6today
Oct 29TORTOR6@LADLAD2
Oct 30TORTOR6@LADLAD1
Nov 1LADLAD3@TORTOR1
Nov 2LADLAD5@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 18th Inning

TORTOR
A. Kirk

A. Kirk

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.917 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.500 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 6-5. Freeman's play in the bottom 18th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Win probability

LAD vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12I13I14I15I16I17I18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 4th Inning · 3-2
+24pp→ 48% WP

Kirk · homered to center (394 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.

LADBottom 7th Inning · 5-5
+23pp→ 60% WP

Ohtani · homered to left center (401 feet).

LADBottom 18th Inning · 5-6
+45pp→ 100% WP

Freeman · homered to center (406 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112131415161718R
TOR0004001000000000005
LAD0110201000000000016

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · LAD won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Hern 1

0
1

Inn 3

Ohtani 1

4
0

Inn 4

Kirk 3

0
2

Inn 5

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Bichette 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

0
0

Inn 11

0
0

Inn 12

0
0

Inn 13

0
0

Inn 14

0
0

Inn 15

0
0

Inn 16

0
0

Inn 17

0
1

Inn 18

Freeman 1

TOR
LAD

Play-by-play · 1205 plays

period
event
player
  1. B18

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 6

  2. B18

    Freeman homered to center (406 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 6

    +45pp

  3. B18

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 6

  4. B18

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 6

  5. B18

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  6. B18

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  7. B18

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  8. B18

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  9. B18

    Brendon Little pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 6

  10. B18

    Bottom of the 18th inning

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  11. M18

    Middle of the 18th inning

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  12. T18

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  13. T18

    Heineman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

    −3pp

  14. T18

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  15. T18

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  16. T18

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  17. T18

    Varsho to second on wild pitch by Klein, Kiner-Falefa to third on wild pitch by Klein.

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  18. T18

    Varsho to second on wild pitch by Klein, Kiner-Falefa to third on wild pitch by Klein.

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  19. T18

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  20. T18

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  21. T18

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  22. T18

    Will Klein pitches to Tyler Heineman

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  23. T18

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  24. T18

    Varsho walked, Kiner-Falefa to second.

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

    −4pp

  25. T18

    Pitch 10 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  26. T18

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  27. T18

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  28. T18

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  29. T18

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

  30. T18

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

5

Runs

6

15

Hits

16

0

Errors

2

19

TB

31

1

HR

4

9

BB

10

16

K

13

32

LOB

26

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

LAD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.