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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
PHI

PHI

96-66

1
2
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,563 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

PHI 1 · LAD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
PHI000000100001
LAD000000100012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Oct 9·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Philadelphia Phillies, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

0.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
PHI96-66
1
2
LAD93-69
PHI96-66·LAD93-69
PHI

PHI

96-66

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-55000002
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-55010002
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000010
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-33010020
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-44000002
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33100011
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.148
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-44000002
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-11000001
Team4-37371410412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.1511150
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.2000230
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000010
J. LuzardoJ. LuzardoSP
1.2210030
Team10.27214120
LAD

LAD

93-69

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-44000012
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44011011
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-55010003
SPRINT28.381
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-55010002
SPRINT24.74
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-55010000
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-55000002
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-11010010
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-44010011
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-55000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy3B
1-22010000
Team7-40402710412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
6.0200380
E. SheehanE. SheehanSP
1.0211010
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
3.0000020
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000110
Team11.04114120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    95 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      46%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      43%·87.1 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Luzardo
    30 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      60%·87.8 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      23%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·97.8 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Duran
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·100.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      38%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      13%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.1 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      42%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.7 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    83 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.7 mph·70% whiff
    • CU
      33%·82.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      17%·90.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      10%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Sasaki
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FO
      53%·88.1 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      44%·99.5 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      3%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sheehan
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.4 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      37%·89.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      19%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

2

2

Errors

1

Playoff series

LAD win series 3-1

Oct 4LADLAD5@PHIPHI3
Oct 6LADLAD4@PHIPHI3
Oct 9PHIPHI8@LADLAD2
Oct 9PHIPHI1@LADLAD2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 11th Inning

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.933 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
A. Call

A. Call

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat PHI 2-1. Kim's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Win probability

LAD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 7th Inning · 1-0
+19pp→ 66% WP

Castellanos · doubled to left, Kepler scored.

LADBottom 7th Inning · 1-1
+21pp→ 66% WP

Betts · walked, Dean scored, Ohtani to second, E. Hernández to third.

LADBottom 11th Inning · 1-2
+36pp→ 100% WP

Kim · scored on error, Pages safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Kerkering, E. Hernández to second, Muncy to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
PHI000000100001
LAD000000100012

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Castellanos 1

Betts 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

0
1

Inn 11

Kim 1

PHI
LAD

Play-by-play · 663 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 2

  2. B11

    Kim scored on error, Pages safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Kerkering, E. Hernández to second, Muncy to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 2

    +36pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 2

  4. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  5. B11

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 2

  6. B11

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  7. B11

    E. Hernández walked.

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

    +1pp

  8. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  9. B11

    Muncy to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  10. B11

    Muncy to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  11. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  12. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  13. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  14. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  16. B11

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Enrique Hernandez

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  17. B11

    Kerkering relieved Luzardo

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  18. B11

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  19. B11

    Muncy singled to center, Kim to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

    +6pp

  20. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  21. B11

    Jesus Luzardo pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  22. B11

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  23. B11

    Smith lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

    −8pp

  24. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  25. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  26. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  27. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  28. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  29. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

  30. B11

    Jesus Luzardo pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

2

4

Hits

7

2

Errors

1

6

TB

7

0

HR

0

4

BB

4

12

K

12

14

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 14, 25sim 97
    192
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 3, 25sim 95
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 95
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 94
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 94
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs