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FINAL+5LAD
CIN

CIN

83-79

5
10
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,555 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

CIN 5 · LAD 10 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000002305
LAD1040122010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    612
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 2, 25sim 95
    174
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    281
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 92
    75
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 92
    138
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 92
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 30·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Cincinnati Reds, 10–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN83-79
5
10
LAD93-69
CIN83-79·LAD93-69
CIN

CIN

83-79

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000012
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-33100012
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44100011
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT27.354
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33102012
SPRINT2872
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44011002
SPRINT26.735
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-44000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44120002
SPRINT28.586
G. LuxG. LuxLF
1-11010000
Team7-34345750512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. GreeneH. Greene★SP
3.0655243
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.2000040
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0333122
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.1421020
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0200000
Team8.0151093125
LAD

LAD

93-69

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55223203
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-44020011
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44120010
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44100013
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
3-55234200
SPRINT28.381
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-33111102
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-55000000
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
2-33120001
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
1-33011002
M. RojasM. RojasSS
1-11110000
A. CallA. CallLF
1-11110000
Team15-3838101595312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
7.0422190
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1122100
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.2000110
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100020
Team9.07555120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • A. Vesia
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      79%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Treinen
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

15

5

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Playoff series

LAD lead series 1-0

Oct 1CINCIN5@LADLAD10today
Oct 2CINCIN4@LADLAD8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

CINCIN
G. Lux

G. Lux

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

H. Greene

H. Greene

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat CIN 10-5.

Win probability

LAD vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 77% WP

Ohtani · homered to right (375 feet).

LADBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+14pp→ 93% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left (390 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000002305
LAD10401220—10

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · LAD won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Hern 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Hern 1

0
2

Inn 6

Ohtani 2

2
2

Inn 7

Cruz 1

Call 1

3
0

Inn 8

Stewart 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
LAD

Play-by-play · 643 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  2. T9

    Andujar grounded out to third.

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  4. T9

    Lux to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  5. T9

    Lux to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  8. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Miguel Andujar

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  9. T9

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  10. T9

    Lux reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  15. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Gavin Lux

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  16. T9

    Lux hit for Marte

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  17. T9

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  18. T9

    Friedl struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  23. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to TJ Friedl

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  24. T9

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  25. T9

    McLain struck out looking.

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 5·LAD 10

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

5

Runs

10

7

Hits

15

1

Errors

0

9

TB

31

0

HR

5

5

BB

3

12

K

12

12

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.2± 1.4high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.2%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.