• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4LAD
CIN

CIN

83-79

4
8
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,465 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

CIN 4 · LAD 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN2000000204
LAD001204108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 99
    281
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 96
    14
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 95
    286
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    177
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    213
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Oct 1·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Cincinnati Reds, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts

SS

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CIN83-79
4
8
LAD93-69
CIN83-79·LAD93-69
CIN

CIN

83-79

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44010011
SPRINT26.838
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.483
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
2-55220001
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-44200010
SPRINT27.354
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-44023001
SPRINT26.530
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33000012
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33001002
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000013
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000011
Team6-33334640513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
3.1633020
N. LodoloN. LodoloSP
1.2100000
N. MartinezN. MartinezSP
0.1443100
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0211200
C. BurnsC. BurnsSP
1.2000010
Team8.01387330
LAD

LAD

93-69

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44111010
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
4-55143000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44000011
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-55012000
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33110010
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000002
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
2-55221000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
2-44121000
SPRINT26.123
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
2-33220000
Team13-37378138033
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.2420290
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000000
E. SheehanE. SheehanSP
0.1222200
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.2000120
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
1.0000020
Team9.06425130

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

13

4

Runs

8

1

Errors

3

Playoff series

LAD win series 2-0

Oct 1CINCIN5@LADLAD10
Oct 2CINCIN4@LADLAD8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 6 H

LADLAD
M. Betts

M. Betts

SS

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.600 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat CIN 8-4. Stewart's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

LAD vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 50% WP

Stewart · singled to right, Lux scored and Hays scored.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 70% WP

E. Hern · ández doubled to center, Muncy scored.

CINTop 6th Inning · 2-3
+11pp→ 52% WP

Lux · reached on infield single to third, Steer to second, Friedl to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN2000000204
LAD00120410—8

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · LAD won 4

2
0

Inn 1

Stewart 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Betts 1

0
2

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
4

Inn 6

Hern 2

0
1

Inn 7

Betts 1

2
0

Inn 8

Stewart 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
LAD

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  2. T9

    Hays lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  5. T9

    Hays continues to at bat after dropped foul ball by catcher Rortvedt.

    · ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  6. T9

    Hays continues to at bat after dropped foul ball by catcher Rortvedt.

    · ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  8. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Austin Hays

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  9. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  10. T9

    Lux struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

    +0.5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  15. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Gavin Lux

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  16. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  17. T9

    Steer struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

    +0.7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  22. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  23. T9

    Sasaki relieved Vesia

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  26. B8

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  27. B8

    E. Hernández grounded out to third.

    · ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

  30. B8

    Chase Burns pitches to Enrique Hernandez

    · ·

    CIN 4·LAD 8

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

8

6

Hits

13

1

Errors

3

6

TB

19

0

HR

0

5

BB

3

13

K

3

20

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.2± 1.4high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.4%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.