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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ATL
ATL

ATL

69-83

5
0
WSH

WSH

62-90

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
19,216 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 5 · WSH 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATL00000000055
WSH00000000000

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 29, 25sim 96
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    233
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    235
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 94
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    156
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 93
    116
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Dylan Crews

Dylan Crews

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATL69-83
5
0
WSH62-90
ATL69-83·WSH62-90
ATL

ATL

69-83

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-33110021
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-55113001
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-22000030
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44001000
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44010011
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.148
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-33000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-22000002
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000000
D. BaldwinD. BaldwinC
1-11111000
SPRINT26.632
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
0-22000001
H. KimH. KimSS
1-22110001
Team6-3434565068
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
8.0300090
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
2.0200010
Team10.05000100
WSH

WSH

62-90

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT29.899
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
2-44020000
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44000000
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000001
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-44000001
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000001
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-44010002
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
0-11000000
Team5-35350500010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
5.1200350
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.2100010
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000100
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000010
M. ThompsonM. ThompsonRP
0.1354110
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2000100
Team10.0654680

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

WSH

  • P. Poulin
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      33%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 4-2

May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0today
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4

Season series

ATL leads series 6-3

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0today
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 39pp · Top 10th Inning

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H

WSHWSH
D. Crews

D. Crews

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 5-0. Baldwin's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

WSH vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 9th Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 82% WP

Bell · singled to right, Crews to third.

ATLTop 10th Inning · 1-0
+39pp→ 76% WP

Baldwin · doubled to right, Harris II scored.

ATLTop 10th Inning · 4-0
+18pp→ 98% WP

Olson · tripled to right, Baldwin scored, Kim scored and Profar scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATL00000000055
WSH00000000000

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · WSH won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

5
0

Inn 10

Olson 3

ATL
WSH

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  2. B10

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  3. B10

    DeJong grounded out to third.

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  6. B10

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Paul DeJong

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  7. B10

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  8. B10

    House fouled out to first.

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  9. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  10. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  11. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  12. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  14. B10

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  15. B10

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  16. B10

    Chaparro lined out to left.

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

    −0.9pp

  17. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  18. B10

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Andres Chaparro

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  19. B10

    Baldwin catching.

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  20. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  21. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  22. T10

    ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  23. T10

    Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to second, Acuña Jr. out at second.

    ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  24. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  25. T10

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  26. T10

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  27. T10

    Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

    −0.5pp

  28. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·WSH 0

  29. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 4·WSH 0

  30. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 4·WSH 0

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

5

Runs

0

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

11

TB

5

0

HR

0

6

BB

0

8

K

10

17

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 10 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.4± 3.2high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.