MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SF

LAD

82-65

75-72

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

40,509 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.1%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.9± 1.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high
Matt ChapmanSF
2.3± 3.8high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.2± 2.5high
Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.9± 0.9high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

.788

OPS

◀

.717

.725

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.309

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.52

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

LAD 1 · SF 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
SF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.279	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
M. BettsSS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. Freeman1B	.291	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.253	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. HernándezLF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.193	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. PagesCF	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.225	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. RojasSS	.262	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	4	1	1	5	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.279

.258

.291

.253

.241

.193

.271

.225

.294

.262

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Y. YamamotoSP	7.0	1	1	1	1	10	91
J. DreyerRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	19
B. TreinenRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	0	7
T. ScottRP	0.0	1	3	3	2	0	9
Team	9.1	3	5	4	4	13	126

Player

7.0

1.1

1.0

0.0

Team

9.1

126

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.248	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
W. AdamesSS	.229	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. SmithDH	.284	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Chapman3B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LeeRF	.267	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. SchmittDH	.242	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
P. BaileyC	.220	4	1	1	4	1	0	2
D. GilbertCF	.224	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Flores1B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Koss2B	.258	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. MatosRF	.219	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. McCrayCF	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	3	4	1	4	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. VerlanderSP	7.0	4	1	1	4	4	105
J. LucchesiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
J. PegueroRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	3
Team	10.0	4	1	1	5	5	139

Team

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.