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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4HOU
HOU

HOU

87-75

6
2
LAA

LAA

72-90

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
30,609 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 6 · LAA 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU1000410006
LAA1000000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 99
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 97
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    72
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    296
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU87-75
6
2
LAA72-90
HOU87-75·LAA72-90
HOU

HOU

87-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-44000013
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-55110000
SPRINT26.428
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-44111101
SPRINT24.22
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-55122101
SPRINT25.513
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-55020002
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44110000
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33112120
SPRINT26.735
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
2-44121101
SPRINT28.278
J. MeltonJ. Melton★LF
1-33010011
Team11-37376116449
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.★SP
3.0211141
CC. GordonSP
5.0000130
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.0411020
Team9.0622291
LAA

LAA

72-90

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000001
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-11111100
SPRINT28.688
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT27.867
C. TaylorC. Taylor★CF
1-33010011
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-44000002
C. KieboomC. Kieboom★3B
1-44011000
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
1-44010000
D. GuzmanD. Guzman★SS
1-44010002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000010
L. O'HoppeL. O'HoppeC
0-33000000
T. WardT. WardLF
0-11000001
Team6-3434262129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AldegheriS. Aldegheri★SP
4.2744352
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.1322022
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0100110
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0000000
S. PeraltaS. PeraltaRP
1.0000010
Team9.01166494

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Gordon
    68 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      32%·89.8 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.9 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      9%·73.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
  • L. McCullers Jr.
    54 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      39%·91.6 mph·42% whiff
    • ST
      24%·82.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.7 mph·29% whiff
    • KC
      7%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      4%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Murray
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·92.3 mph·— whiff

LAA

  • S. Aldegheri
    96 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.1 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      27%·80.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      22%·82.5 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      8%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      74%·95.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      15%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      33%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      19%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • S. Peralta
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      46%·79.8 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      31%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Bachman
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

6

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 4-2

Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2today

Season series

HOU wins series 8-5

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 5th Inning

HOUHOU
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

C. Gordon

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

S. Aldegheri

S. Aldegheri

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat LAA 6-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 5th inning (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 61% WP

Diaz · singled to center, Dubón scored, Caratini to third.

HOUTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 61% WP

Diaz · homered to left center (411 feet).

HOUTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+20pp→ 82% WP

Urías homered to left (382 feet), Smith scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU1000410006
LAA1000000012

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · LAA won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Diaz 1

Trout 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Diaz 1

1
0

Inn 6

Caratini 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Kieboom 1

HOU
LAA

Play-by-play · 608 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  3. B9

    Ward struck out looking.

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  10. B9

    Jayden Murray pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  11. B9

    Ward hit for Teodosio

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  13. B9

    Guzman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

    −5pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  20. B9

    Jayden Murray pitches to Denzer Guzman

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  21. B9

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  22. B9

    Rivero reached on infield single to third, Kieboom to second, Taylor to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

    +5pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  25. B9

    Jayden Murray pitches to Sebastian Rivero

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  26. B9

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  27. B9

    Kieboom singled to center, Adell scored, Taylor to second.

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

    +2pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

24

TB

9

4

HR

1

4

BB

2

9

K

9

15

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    44.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.7%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.