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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
SD

SD

83-71

3
4
CHW

CHW

58-96

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
30,505 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

SD 3 · CHW 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0011010003
CHW200200004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 98
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 98
    253
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    72
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off San Diego Padres, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Jake Cronenworth

Jake Cronenworth

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD83-71
3
4
CHW58-96
SD83-71·CHW58-96
SD

SD

83-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44010001
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44210001
SPRINT2872
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33001010
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44011003
SPRINT26.735
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.891
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-33010000
Team7-3333373018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
6.0444361
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000010
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0000000
Team8.0444371
CHW

CHW

58-96

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000001
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-33000012
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-33112110
SPRINT28.381
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-11100010
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-22100001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-33011001
SPRINT26.838
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
1-33011001
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-33000001
Team4-2626444137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
6.0633140
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.2100010
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.1000010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0000020
Team9.0733180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • D. Cease
    100 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.1 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      19%·83.4 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      2%·97.0 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • W. Peralta
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.6 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • D. Martin
    77 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.5 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      25%·90.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.3 mph·25% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      58%·99.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      42%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      80%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·90.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Sep 19SDSD3@CHWCHW4today
Sep 20SDSD7@CHWCHW3
Sep 21SDSD3@CHWCHW2

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Sep 19SDSD3@CHWCHW4today
Sep 20SDSD7@CHWCHW3
Sep 21SDSD3@CHWCHW2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SDSD
J. Cronenworth

J. Cronenworth

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.667 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
M. Vargas

M. Vargas

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat SD 4-3. Vargas's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

CHW vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+20pp→ 67% WP

Vargas · homered to left (371 feet), Montgomery scored.

SDTop 4th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 61% WP

O'Hearn · singled to right, Laureano scored, Sheets to third.

CHWBottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+14pp→ 64% WP

Mead · singled to center, Tauchman scored, Quero to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0011010003
CHW20020000—4

Period scoring

SD won 2 · CHW won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Vargas 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Arraez 1

1
2

Inn 4

O'Hearn 1

Mead 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
CHW

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  2. T9

    O'Hearn struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  6. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  7. T9

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  8. T9

    Sheets flied out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

    +6pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  13. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Gavin Sheets

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  14. T9

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  15. T9

    Laureano struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

    +7pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  21. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  22. T9

    G. Taylor relieved Eisert

    · ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 3·CHW 4

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 3·CHW 4

  25. B8

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  26. B8

    Vargas flied out to center.

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

    −0.6pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·CHW 4

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

9

TB

7

0

HR

1

1

BB

3

8

K

7

9

LOB

4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    44.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.4%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.