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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAA
HOU

HOU

85-75

3
4
LAA

LAA

72-88

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
37,448 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

HOU 3 · LAA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0003000003
LAA000110114

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Houston Astros, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU85-75
3
4
LAA72-88
HOU85-75·LAA72-88
HOU

HOU

85-75

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-33000012
SPRINT27.867
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000001
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-44120001
SPRINT25.513
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
1-33111002
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000002
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-44000002
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-44000002
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000000
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
0-11000001
Team6-35353621113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AlexanderJ. Alexander★RP
4.2422141
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2000100
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.1111100
B. KingB. KingRP
0.2211001
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
0.2100000
Team8.0844342
LAA

LAA

72-88

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000000
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44222201
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22000020
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000001
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
1-22110010
D. GuzmanD. Guzman★SS
2-33121000
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-22010001
C. TaylorC. TaylorCF
1-11011000
Team8-2929484234
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
5.0532081
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0000020
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0000100
SPRINT27.148
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0100000
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000030
Team9.06321131

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

HOU wins series 4-2

Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4today
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Season series

HOU leads series 6-5

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4today
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 35pp · Bottom 8th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Alexander

J. Alexander

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

LAA beat HOU 4-3. Trout's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Win probability

LAA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 5th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 43% WP

Guzman · doubled to left, Moore scored.

LAABottom 7th Inning · 3-3
+24pp→ 51% WP

Taylor · singled to right, Guzman scored.

LAABottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+35pp→ 87% WP

Trout · homered to right center (395 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0003000003
LAA00011011—4

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · LAA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
1

Inn 4

Walker 1

Trout 1

0
1

Inn 5

Guzman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Taylor 1

0
1

Inn 8

Trout 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
LAA

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  2. T9

    Dubón struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  13. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  14. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  15. T9

    Urías struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

    +5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  19. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Ramon Urias

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  20. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  21. T9

    Sánchez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

    +7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  28. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  29. T9

    Jansen relieved Burke

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

  30. T9

    Sánchez hit for Smith

    ·

    HOU 3·LAA 4

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

12

TB

16

1

HR

2

1

BB

3

13

K

4

12

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

LAA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    44.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.7%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 99
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 98
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    72
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    253
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs