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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5HOU
HOU

HOU

86-75

6
1
LAA

LAA

72-89

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
36,487 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 6 · LAA 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0203000016
LAA0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 97
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    253
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    257
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU86-75
6
1
LAA72-89
HOU86-75·LAA72-89
HOU

HOU

86-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-11010000
SPRINT27.867
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-11000000
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-11000000
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44222200
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44110001
SPRINT25.513
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
2-33222110
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44112102
SPRINT25.818
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000001
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-33000000
B. MatthewsB. MatthewsCF
0-33000001
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-33000001
R. UriasR. Urias3B
0-33000000
Team7-3333676416
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. BlubaughA. Blubaugh★RP
4.0100420
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0000020
J.P. FranceJ.P. FranceSP
3.0211150
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0000020
Team9.03115110
LAA

LAA

72-89

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-22010011
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.867
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000010
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-33000012
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-33000013
D. GuzmanD. Guzman★SS
0-33000002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33000002
C. KieboomC. Kieboom3B
0-11000000
Team3-29291310511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. DanaC. Dana★SP
7.0555153
J. UrenaJ. UrenaRP
2.0211011
Team9.0766164

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

6

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 4-2

Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1today
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Season series

HOU leads series 7-5

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1today
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 2nd Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

J.P. France

J.P. France

SP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Dana

C. Dana

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat LAA 6-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 46% WP

Paredes · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Altuve out at second.

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 75% WP

Cole · homered to center (398 feet), Diaz scored.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 5-0
+10pp→ 93% WP

Sánchez homered to right (378 feet), Cole scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0203000016
LAA0000010001

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · LAA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Cole 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Adell 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Walker 1

HOU
LAA

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  3. B9

    Peraza struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  10. B9

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  11. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  12. B9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  17. B9

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  18. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  19. B9

    O'Hoppe flied out to right.

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  26. B9

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  27. B9

    Kimbrel relieved France

    ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·LAA 1

  30. T9

    · ·

    HOU 6·LAA 1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

1

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

19

TB

4

4

HR

0

1

BB

5

6

K

11

2

LOB

16

Player projections

LAA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    45.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.0%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278