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FINAL+2MIL
CIN

CIN

83-79

2
4
MIL

MIL

97-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
41,055 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CIN 2 · MIL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0110000002
MIL001300004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 93
    282
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 93
    11
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 93
    11
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 92
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 92
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 92
    173
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Cincinnati Reds, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
TJ Friedl

TJ Friedl

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Danny Jansen

Danny Jansen

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN83-79
2
4
MIL97-65
CIN83-79·MIL97-65
CIN

CIN

83-79

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33111111
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.992
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-33010000
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44000001
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT2872
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.483
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000001
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-22000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000003
A. HaysA. HaysLF
0-11000000
T. StephensonT. StephensonC
0-11000001
Team5-31312522210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
3.1533151
N. LodoloN. LodoloSP
1.0211200
C. BurnsC. BurnsSP
1.2000240
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000110
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0000020
Team8.07446121
MIL

MIL

97-65

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000011
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-55220002
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-33011022
SPRINT28.586
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-11000011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22000000
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-22110011
SPRINT27.867
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-22000000
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
2-33122111
SPRINT26.838
A. VaughnA. Vaughn1B
1-33011002
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000001
J. OrtizJ. OrtizSS
0-22000001
Team7-31314741612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
2.0311031
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0211001
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000020
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.0000120
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
1.0000120
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0000010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000000
Team9.05222102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Singer
    71 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      41%·91.7 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      28%·81.5 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      21%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Burns
    33 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      33%·92.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      12%·92.9 mph·— whiff
  • N. Lodolo
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      35%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • ST
      73%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.1 mph·100% whiff

MIL

  • F. Peralta
    44 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.5 mph·71% whiff
    • CS
      11%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      7%·80.8 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      54%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Patrick
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      42%·95.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      37%·88.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      5%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Megill
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • KC
      58%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·97.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      63%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 4-3

Apr 3CINCIN0@MILMIL1
Apr 5CINCIN2@MILMIL3
Apr 5CINCIN11@MILMIL7
Apr 6CINCIN2@MILMIL8
Sep 27CINCIN3@MILMIL1
Sep 27CINCIN7@MILMIL4
Sep 28CINCIN2@MILMIL4today

Season series

MIL wins series 8-5

Apr 3CINCIN0@MILMIL1
Apr 5CINCIN2@MILMIL3
Apr 5CINCIN11@MILMIL7
Apr 6CINCIN2@MILMIL8
Jun 2MILMIL3@CINCIN2
Jun 3MILMIL2@CINCIN4
Jun 4MILMIL9@CINCIN1
Aug 15MILMIL10@CINCIN8
Aug 16MILMIL6@CINCIN5
Aug 17MILMIL2@CINCIN3
Sep 27CINCIN3@MILMIL1
Sep 27CINCIN7@MILMIL4
Sep 28CINCIN2@MILMIL4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CINCIN
T. Friedl

T. Friedl

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
D. Jansen

D. Jansen

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

MIL beat CIN 4-2. Jansen's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIL vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 45% WP

De La Cruz · homered to center (413 feet).

MILBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 52% WP

Chourio · doubled to right.

MILBottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 78% WP

Jansen · homered to left (382 feet), Collins scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0110000002
MIL00130000—4

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Cruz 1

1
1

Inn 3

Friedl 1

Turang 1

0
3

Inn 4

Jansen 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CIN
MIL

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  2. T9

    Steer flied out to center.

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  5. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  6. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  7. T9

    De La Cruz grounded out to first.

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  13. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  14. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  15. T9

    Andujar fouled out to catcher.

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

    +3pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  17. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  18. T9

    Uribe relieved Koenig

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  21. B8

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  22. B8

    Vaughn struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  23. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  28. B8

    Connor Phillips pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  29. B8

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

  30. B8

    Turang struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 2·MIL 4

    −0.5pp

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

4

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

14

2

HR

1

2

BB

6

10

K

12

10

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.2± 2.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    60.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.5%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.