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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
MIA

MIA

50-54

2
3
MIL

MIL

62-43

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
40,158 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIA 2 · MIL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1001000002
MIL0010000113

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 93
    172
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 93
    101
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 92
    285
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 92
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 92
    181
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 92
    72
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Miami Marlins, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Eric Wagaman

Eric Wagaman

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Blake Perkins

Blake Perkins

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA50-54
2
3
MIL62-43
MIA50-54·MIL62-43
MIA

MIA

50-54

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-22110020
SPRINT2872
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000000
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-33000011
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-33011011
SPRINT2622
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000001
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000002
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT28.483
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-22010000
SPRINT26.326
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-33000011
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
1-11010000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
1-22010001
Team6-3131262158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.0211260
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
1.0200000
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0000010
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0211110
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
0.1311110
Team8.1933490
MIL

MIL

62-43

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44010010
SPRINT28.586
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-44021010
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000001
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44010001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-44021001
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-22010020
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-44000002
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000001
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
1-33210002
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
1-11111000
SPRINT28.586
A. SeiglerA. Seigler2B
0-22000001
Team9-3434393049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
6.0422361
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000210
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100000
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0100010
Team9.0622581

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      36%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      20%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·91.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Gibson
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·78.8 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Bender
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      31%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      56%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.4 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    85 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·93.4 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.4 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      32%·82.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      32%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      73%·98.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      75%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      25%·88.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 25MIAMIA5@MILMIL1
Jul 26MIAMIA7@MILMIL4
Jul 27MIAMIA2@MILMIL3today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jul 4MILMIL6@MIAMIA5
Jul 5MILMIL2@MIAMIA4
Jul 6MILMIL3@MIAMIA1
Jul 25MIAMIA5@MILMIL1
Jul 26MIAMIA7@MILMIL4
Jul 27MIAMIA2@MILMIL3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MIAMIA
E. Wagaman

E. Wagaman

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
B. Perkins

B. Perkins

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat MIA 3-2. Vaughn's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Win probability

MIL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 7th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 61% WP

Sanoja · struck out swinging.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+23pp→ 55% WP

Chourio · hit a ground rule double.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+36pp→ 62% WP

Vaughn · hit a ground rule double, Perkins scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1001000002
MIL0010000113

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · MIL won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Stowers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Chourio 1

1
0

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Vaughn 1

0
1

Inn 9

Perkins 1

MIA
MIL

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 3

  2. B9

    Perkins singled to center, Haase scored, Chourio to second, Turang to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 3

    +16pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  9. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to Blake Perkins

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 3

  10. B9

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  11. B9

    Chourio intentionally walked.

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  16. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to Jackson Chourio

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  18. B9

    Turang doubled to left, Haase to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

    +18pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  20. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  21. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  22. B9

    Haase singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

    +7pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  25. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to Eric Haase

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  26. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  27. B9

    Seigler struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

    +2pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 2·MIL 2

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

3

6

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

12

TB

13

1

HR

0

5

BB

4

8

K

9

15

LOB

17

Player projections

MIL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    60.4%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.4%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872