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FINAL+2CIN
CIN

CIN

82-78

3
1
MIL

MIL

96-64

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
40,316 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 3 · MIL 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0001020003
MIL0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
TJ Friedl

TJ Friedl

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

DH

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN82-78
3
1
MIL96-64
CIN82-78·MIL96-64
CIN

CIN

82-78

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-44000000
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
2-44220001
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44121000
SPRINT26.530
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44010000
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44011003
SPRINT28.483
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-33011001
SPRINT26.735
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000010
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000002
Team9-3333393027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
4.2311230
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.1000030
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000010
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000110
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000010
Team9.0311390
MIL

MIL

96-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44110002
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-22000021
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000002
SPRINT24.96
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.790
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-33000011
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33000000
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-33000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000001
Team3-3030131039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Q. PriesterQ. Priester★SP
5.0933140
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000010
T. MyersT. MyersRP
3.0000120
Team9.0933270

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Phillips
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      86%·97.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      23%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      55%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·91.2 mph·0% whiff

MIL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

3

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 4-3

Apr 3CINCIN0@MILMIL1
Apr 5CINCIN2@MILMIL3
Apr 5CINCIN11@MILMIL7
Apr 6CINCIN2@MILMIL8
Sep 27CINCIN3@MILMIL1today
Sep 27CINCIN7@MILMIL4
Sep 28CINCIN2@MILMIL4

Season series

MIL leads series 7-4

Apr 3CINCIN0@MILMIL1
Apr 5CINCIN2@MILMIL3
Apr 5CINCIN11@MILMIL7
Apr 6CINCIN2@MILMIL8
Jun 2MILMIL3@CINCIN2
Jun 3MILMIL2@CINCIN4
Jun 4MILMIL9@CINCIN1
Aug 15MILMIL10@CINCIN8
Aug 16MILMIL6@CINCIN5
Aug 17MILMIL2@CINCIN3
Sep 27CINCIN3@MILMIL1today
Sep 27CINCIN7@MILMIL4
Sep 28CINCIN2@MILMIL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CINCIN
T. Friedl

T. Friedl

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
C. Yelich

C. Yelich

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 R · 0.500 OPS

Q. Priester

Q. Priester

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat MIL 3-1. Frelick's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+20pp→ 68% WP

Frelick · singled to center.

CINTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 55% WP

Lux · doubled to left, Lux safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Bauers.

CINTop 9th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 91% WP

Steer · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0001020003
MIL0010000001

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Turang 1

1
0

Inn 4

Steer 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
MIL

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  3. B9

    Vaughn popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  6. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  7. B9

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  8. B9

    Frelick popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

    −3pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  12. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  13. B9

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  14. B9

    Contreras struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

    −6pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  22. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to William Contreras

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  23. B9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  27. T9

    McLain grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

    +0.7pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 3·MIL 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

1

9

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

12

TB

4

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

7

K

9

14

LOB

11

Player projections

MIL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.6%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    12
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 93
    280
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 93
    11
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 92
    285
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 92
    172
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 91
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872