• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5NYY
BAL

BAL

75-86

1
6
NYY

NYY

93-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
46,085 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BAL 1 · NYY 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000101
NYY120030006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    12
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    72
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 94
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    286
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 93
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 93
    214
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesNYY win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Baltimore Orioles, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

3B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL75-86
1
6
NYY93-68
BAL75-86·NYY93-68
BAL

BAL

75-86

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44000001
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-44000001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33010011
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.662
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-44000003
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-33000003
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000001
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000002
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-22111100
SPRINT2872
Team3-30301311112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
4.1544033
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.2122300
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.0000020
C. RagsdaleC. RagsdaleRP
2.0100020
Team8.0766373
NYY

NYY

93-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33100010
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33100010
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44123101
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33011001
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-33121111
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-22000000
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-44000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
2-33221101
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000002
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
0-11000000
Team7-2929676337
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
7.0200190
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
2.0111031
Team9.03111121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    73 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      29%·93.5 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      18%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    31 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      48%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ragsdale
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      6%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      40%·87.7 mph·67% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    97 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.4 mph·26% whiff
    • FC
      19%·95.2 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      10%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·98.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.9 mph·25% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      27%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      27%·90.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·92.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

7

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 5-1

Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6today
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3

Season series

NYY lead series 8-4

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6today
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BALBAL
C. Mayo

C. Mayo

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BAL 6-1.

Win probability

NYY vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 75% WP

Judge · homered to left center (383 feet).

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 85% WP

Stanton · homered to center (427 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000101
NYY12003000—6

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · NYY won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Judge 1

0
2

Inn 2

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Judge 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Mayo 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
NYY

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  2. T9

    J. Jackson struck out looking.

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  7. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  8. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  9. T9

    Beavers struck out looking.

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  14. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Dylan Beavers

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  15. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  16. T9

    O'Neill grounded out to third.

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  22. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  23. T9

    Domínguez as designated hitter.

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  26. B8

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  27. B8

    Goldschmidt struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 1·NYY 6

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

6

3

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

7

TB

16

1

HR

3

1

BB

3

12

K

7

8

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    62.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.9%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.