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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BOS
PIT

PIT

61-77

2
5
BOS

BOS

76-62

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,583 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

PIT 2 · BOS 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0001001002
BOS000041005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    14
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 96
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    285
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 95
    16
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    153
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Alexander Canario

Alexander Canario

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT61-77
2
5
BOS76-62
PIT61-77·BOS76-62
PIT

PIT

61-77

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-55000002
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-44010001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT28.586
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-22000021
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.483
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000002
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
2-44121102
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
0-33000012
L. PegueroL. PegueroSS
0-11000001
Team6-32322611612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
5.0440171
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.0311100
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.0100110
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0000010
Team8.0851391
BOS

BOS

76-62

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-33001012
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-22123120
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
2-44120002
SPRINT25.411
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-44000000
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44110002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44011000
SPRINT28.790
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44110001
Team8-3232585139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
6.0311560
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0111021
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0200120
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000020
Team9.06226121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Keller
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·95.1 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.1 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.3 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      3%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      52%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      30%·90.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      19%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      56%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·94.0 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      70%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.3 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.7 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      32%·85.2 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      26%·81.1 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      1%·79.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Slaten
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      30%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      48%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      39%·86.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      44%·99.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      38%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·91.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 29PITPIT4@BOSBOS2
Aug 30PITPIT10@BOSBOS3
Aug 31PITPIT2@BOSBOS5today

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 29PITPIT4@BOSBOS2
Aug 30PITPIT10@BOSBOS3
Aug 31PITPIT2@BOSBOS5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 5th Inning

PITPIT
A. Canario

A. Canario

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 5 BB

How it ended

BOS beat PIT 5-2. Duran's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

BOS vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 4th Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 43% WP

Lowe · struck out looking.

BOSBottom 5th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 66% WP

Narv · áez hit a ground rule double, González to third.

BOSBottom 5th Inning · 1-4
+23pp→ 92% WP

Duran · scored on an inside-the-park home run (266 feet), Narváez scored and Bregman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0001001002
BOS00004100—5

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · BOS won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Davis 1

0
4

Inn 5

Duran 3

0
1

Inn 6

Rafaela 1

1
0

Inn 7

Canario 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
BOS

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  2. T9

    Peguero struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  9. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Liover Peguero

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  10. T9

    Peguero hit for Horwitz

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  11. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  12. T9

    Triolo popped out to second.

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

    +1pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  18. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jared Triolo

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  19. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  20. T9

    Devanney struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

    +1pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  26. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Cam Devanney

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  27. T9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  28. T9

    Hamilton at second base.

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·BOS 5

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 2·BOS 5

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

2

Runs

5

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

10

TB

13

1

HR

1

6

BB

3

12

K

9

16

LOB

17

Player projections

BOS vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483