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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
CHW

CHW

52-88

4
3
MIN

MIN

62-77

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
11,904 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 4 · MIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0100000034
MIN2000010003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

MIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Luke KeaschallMIN
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.3low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Edgar QueroCHW
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.8± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    54.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 92
    93
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 91
    48
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 91
    90
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 90
    200
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 90
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 89
    47
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesCHW win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Edgar Quero

Edgar Quero

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW52-88
4
3
MIN62-77
CHW52-88·MIN62-77
CHW

CHW

52-88

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-33000010
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000002
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44121100
SPRINT24.12
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33100010
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44010003
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-33111010
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
1-44012002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000001
Team6-33334641310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
5.0721150
M. VasilM. VasilRP
1.0211110
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.2000110
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.1100020
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0100100
Team9.01132490
MIN

MIN

62-77

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-55020003
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44110010
SPRINT26.632
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44111010
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44010002
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
3-55130000
SPRINT26.326
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
3-44031001
SPRINT27.251
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-33000012
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-33000010
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000000
Team11-37373112049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
6.0311251
C. SandsC. SandsRP
2.0000040
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.1122100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2211010
Team9.06443101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    94 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      35%·93.1 mph·16% whiff
    • ST
      28%·82.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.9 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      56%·93.5 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      19%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      65%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·89.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      38%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·82.0 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      75%·98.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      17%·85.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    84 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.9 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Sands
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      38%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·82.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Topa
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      56%·82.3 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      33%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·93.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 5-2

Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3today
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Season series

CHW lead series 7-5

Mar 31MINMIN0@CHWCHW9
Apr 1MINMIN8@CHWCHW3
Apr 2MINMIN6@CHWCHW1
Apr 22CHWCHW2@MINMIN4
Apr 23CHWCHW3@MINMIN6
Apr 24CHWCHW3@MINMIN0
Aug 22MINMIN9@CHWCHW7
Aug 23MINMIN3@CHWCHW7
Aug 24MINMIN0@CHWCHW8
Sep 1CHWCHW6@MINMIN5
Sep 2CHWCHW12@MINMIN3
Sep 3CHWCHW4@MINMIN3today
Sep 4CHWCHW11@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 68pp · Top 9th Inning

CHWCHW
E. Quero

E. Quero

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
R. Lewis

R. Lewis

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat MIN 4-3. M. Taylor's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (68pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 73% WP

Keaschall · doubled to left, Larnach scored.

CHWTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+68pp→ 79% WP

M. Taylor · doubled to left, Baldwin scored and Benintendi scored.

CHWBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+19pp→ 64% WP

Keaschall · lined out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0100000034
MIN2000010003

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · MIN won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Keaschall 1

1
0

Inn 2

Quero 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Lewis 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Taylor 2

CHW
MIN

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  3. B9

    Jeffers grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  5. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  6. B9

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  7. B9

    Outman flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

    −18pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  10. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to James Outman

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  11. B9

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  12. B9

    Keaschall lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

    −19pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  18. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Luke Keaschall

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  19. B9

    Keirsey Jr. ran for Larnach

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  20. B9

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  21. B9

    Larnach walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

    +6pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  28. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  29. B9

    ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

  30. B9

    Buxton doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 4·MIN 3

    +25pp

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

3

6

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

10

TB

15

1

HR

0

3

BB

4

10

K

9

13

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688