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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
CHW

CHW

59-101

10
9
WSH

WSH

65-95

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
33,938 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 10 · WSH 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW40022000210
WSH1000130409

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 4, 25sim 92
    411
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 90
    48
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 89
    45
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 88
    412
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 86
    99
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 84
    912
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 10–9. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

3.750OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW59-101
10
9
WSH65-95
CHW59-101·WSH65-95
CHW

CHW

59-101

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-55110001
K. TeelK. Teel★C
2-55221000
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-55112103
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-55221001
SPRINT28.381
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44110010
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-55112003
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
3-44133100
SPRINT26.941
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
0-22001002
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
0-22100010
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-11000000
Team11-38381011102210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
6.0855054
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0100010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
0.2344122
F. EllardF. EllardRP
0.1000010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100020
Team9.013991116
WSH

WSH

65-95

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-55000001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-44221112
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-44221100
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44223100
SPRINT29.395
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-44000001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
3-44334301
SPRINT26.735
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-44010002
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
2-44020001
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-33000002
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000001
N. NunezN. Nunez2B
1-11010000
Team13-383891396111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
4.0762161
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
0.1222110
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
2.0000010
S. LaoS. LaoRP
1.1000020
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1000000
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0221001
Team9.0111052102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    79 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      33%·92.7 mph·7% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.0 mph·42% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.0 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    24 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      54%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      63%·99.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      31%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      42%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Ellard
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      40%·87.0 mph·100% whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    72 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.4 mph·36% whiff
    • KC
      28%·84.9 mph·45% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.0 mph·17% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      35%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·82.9 mph·67% whiff
    • KC
      12%·73.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Lao
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·79.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

13

10

Runs

9

0

Errors

4

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Sep 26CHWCHW10@WSHWSH9today
Sep 27CHWCHW5@WSHWSH6
Sep 28CHWCHW8@WSHWSH0

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Sep 26CHWCHW10@WSHWSH9today
Sep 27CHWCHW5@WSHWSH6
Sep 28CHWCHW8@WSHWSH0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 61pp · Top 9th Inning

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 8 H

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the game3-HR game

3-for-4 · 3 HR · 3.750 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat WSH 10-9. Montgomery's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (61pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 8th Inning · 8-8
+37pp→ 59% WP

Lile · homered to right center (397 feet), Abrams scored and Bell scored.

CHWTop 9th Inning · 10-9
+61pp→ 83% WP

Montgomery · homered to right center (395 feet), Teel scored.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 10-9
+18pp→ 36% WP

Nuñez singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW40022000210
WSH1000130409

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

10

Runs

9

11

Hits

13

0

Errors

4

19

TB

32

2

HR

6

2

BB

1

10

K

11

13

LOB

11

Win probability

WSH vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHW won 4 · WSH won 2

4
1

Inn 1

Baldwin 2

Bell 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Sosa 1

2
1

Inn 5

Sosa 1

Garc 1

0
3

Inn 6

Garc 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Lile 3

2
0

Inn 9

Montgomery 2

CHW
WSH

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  3. B9

    Chaparro struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  8. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Andres Chaparro

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  9. B9

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  10. B9

    Abrams struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

    −14pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  14. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  15. B9

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  16. B9

    Wood lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

    −10pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  21. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to James Wood

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  22. B9

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  23. B9

    Nuñez singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

    +18pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  29. B9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Nasim Nunez

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

  30. B9

    G. Taylor relieved Ellard

    · ·

    CHW 10·WSH 9

Player projections

WSH vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 10 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381